LET’S start by assuming that Russian president Vladimir Putin is still in full control of his faculties. Yes, I know that there are those who already question that premise, but until unequivocally proven that he has lost the plot, we must assume that Putin has a strategy in mind, albeit one perhaps not quite going to plan.

That being the case, what now, three weeks into the war in Ukraine, might provide Putin with a diplomatic off-ramp to get Russia out of this conflict?

Once again, one is working here on an assumption that Putin wants a way out. But then why wouldn’t he, provided he’s able to present it as a kind of Russian victory?

While there’s every reason to be wary or sceptical, it’s probably fair to say that there’s been a glimmer of cautious optimism these past few days after Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said peace talks with Russia were beginning to sound “more realistic”.

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In fact, you know something “positive” must be afoot when the likes of Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, not known for mincing his words or pressing home an advantage, says he sees “some hope” for reaching a compromise in the negotiations over the war.

Could it be that what we are witnessing is the first glimmer of an alternative realpolitik emerging at the Kremlin? For the sake of all concerned, not least those Ukrainian civilians being bludgeoned with ever increasing ferocity, let’s certainly hope so.

Maybe, and I stress maybe, the rouble is finally beginning to drop in the minds of some in Moscow that the handling of the war has been near calamitous, and the political goals Russia had in mind at the outset may never have been realisable in the first place.

War after all is the harshest of realities. As history has time and again shown, it’s one thing to sit around maps and charts talking of “lightning strikes” and “taking objectives”, but if supplies are not getting through, morale is poor and serious tactical mistakes are bringing the body bags home then that’s something else again.

Certainly, if there’s one thing Putin and his generals cannot be in doubt about now, it’s that Ukraine, its government, and people are not going to roll over and give up without the most determined and stout resistance imaginable. Which brings us back to what Moscow might settle for that would bring an end to the bloodletting?

A recent observation by Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, is perhaps a good place to start in addressing that question. Writing a few days ago in the New Statesman, Lawrence noted that the “challenge from the start for those wondering how this war can best be concluded has been to identify a peace process that encourages Putin to walk away from his delusions”.

As Freedman also cautions too though, this immediately raises the question as to whether Putin has “secondary objectives”. Among these might be the future of Crimea, the Donbas region and territory in the east, or the neutralisation of Ukraine that might allow Putin to walk away claiming gains and a victory of sorts.

In other words, might it be that Putin would still settle for what some believe was his original objective of seizing a broad swath of the south and east, connecting Russia by land to Crimea, which he annexed in 2014?

Only last week Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman who remains close to Putin, insisted that if Ukraine changed its constitution to accept some form of “neutrality” rather than an aspiration to join Nato as well as recognising the separatist controlled areas of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states, and Crimea being part of Russia, Moscow’s onslaught would stop “in a moment”.

For its part Ukraine certainly appears to be no longer insisting on Nato membership and it has not ruled out talks about the country’s possible neutrality in negotiations with Russia, meaning that the most significant issue right now is whether neutrality could indeed deliver peace.

Seen from Russia’s perspective, a proposal for Ukraine to become a neutral country but retain its own armed forces “could be viewed as a certain kind of compromise”, according to Peskov.

But only a “Ukrainian” model with enforceable security guarantees is acceptable to Kyiv, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak in turn responded, meaning that “the signatories do not stand aside in case of attack against Ukraine as they do now”.

There are, of course, a lot of other “ifs” in this scenario, and the difficulties alone in establishing humanitarian corridors these past days is evidence of how elusive the most basic progress remains. That said, diplomatic observers in the main seem to agree that neutrality is perhaps the best way forward.

FOR the West there are other diplomatic dilemmas here too. To begin with, while continuing to give whatever support it does to Kyiv, it has to ensure that the conflict, and indeed the peace negotiation, remains between Ukraine and Russia.

The last thing needed right now is the scuppering of any prospective peace talks no matter how slim by again handing the Kremlin the excuse that the West, in the shape of Nato, is trying to extend it sphere of influence.

Then there’s that other little conundrum of making it easier for Putin to back off while having to listen to him claim a victory of sorts at home and hold him accountable for the current mess.

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Given the level of pain, scale of destruction and likely war crimes Russia has committed these past three weeks and beyond, the instinct and frankly just course of action is to make Putin and his cabal pay.

Doubtless, there is nothing many Western leaders and those in countries neighbouring Ukraine would like more than Putin’s ultimate defeat and demise. But timing on the diplomatic front is everything. Any unthinking turning of the screw on the Russian leader might only result in him doubling down on the war rather than seize any window of opportunity to get out of Ukraine.

Much as the West might want to deliver payback and most likely never forget Putin’s act of aggression, great care must be taken not to shut off any potential peace deal that the Ukrainians themselves might be willing to strike with Moscow.

As a Glaswegian friend of mine summed it up in his own inimitable way the other day, “if Putin is to go up the road, then he’ll want something in his jacket pocket in order to save face”.

Maybe, just maybe, Putin is now casting about for that something.