Storm Eunice: Further extreme weather to come in future, Professor Simon Tett warns

Along with more intense rainfalls, extreme temperatures in the summer will become more common, predicts Professor Simon Tett, chair in earth system dynamics at the University’s School of Geosciences.

This winter has already seen some destructive storms, with November’s Storm Arwen in particular having a devastating impact – uprooting millions of trees and causing widespread power cuts lasting up to a week.

Last week alone, Storms Dudley and Eunice wreaked havoc on transport and power lines, and the outlook is far from settled.

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Professor Tett said that while there had been a natural variability in the number of storms over the last 100 years, the storm track was likely to move northwards this century. For Scotland, unless the track moves a long way north, this means little change in the number of storms.

However, he said that while he didn’t think the strength of the storms would change much, the rain associated with them was likely to increase. With the storms generating even heavier rainfalls this could lead to more flooding.

“I think we would expect more flooding, particularly in autumn,” said Professor Tett. “The Scottish rivers respond very quickly to rain, so if we had a lot of rain already and the ground was quite wet a storm will cause them to burst their banks.”

The summer months would not be immune to storms, which could become more frequent, he predicted. An ongoing research project at the university has so far found that summer rain is also getting heavier.

Last July, for example, Edinburgh saw about 50mm of rain in just 15 minutes, with shops, homes and restaurants suffering from flash flooding.

“We have some evidence from our models that we are going to see summers becoming more extreme,” said Professor Tett. “We might get drier summers on average but when it rains, boy, it will rain. We think there will be more extreme rain and higher temperatures, which will mean 30 degree days will become more common.”

He warned that despite the normally cool climate, Scotland should begin to prepare for the impact of the heavy rainfalls and temperature extremes.

In a previous study, analysis of UK climate projections by Met Office staff and researchers at the Universities of Edinburgh and Oxford indicated a substantial increase in the likelihood of Scottish summers being similar to the heatwave of 2018 between now and 2050.

Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut substantially, the researchers said it is possible every summer may be as hot as 2018 towards the end of the century.

READ MORE: Fresh weather warnings for Scotland as Storm Eunice continues

Human influences had made the heatwave more likely, researchers said, adding that their findings indicate the need to start long-term planning now to deal with heatwaves in Scotland induced by climate change.

The Edinburgh team interviewed those who dealt with the impact of the 2018 heatwave, which involved special measures such as water being distributed by tankers, and railway lines being painted white to prevent them buckling.

Combining this with analysis of media coverage, the team concluded Scotland had been largely able to cope with the hot weather, but with some difficulty.

However, many interviewees said successive years of such heatwaves would prove very challenging, particularly given the substantial costs involved in mitigation.