MAINSTREAM newspapers focused on the economic aspects of independence in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, and there was a disproportionate number of stories looking at the “speculative, negative consequences” of it.

And academic Dr David Patrick has said if people believed the arguments then, they will likely believe it if there is another indyref in the next few years because the “frightening” message that Scotland cannot afford independence would be the dominant “factor” – and would be tied to Covid-19.

Patrick, who wrote “Front-Page Scotland Newspapers and the Scottish Independence Referendum” told the Scotonomics – the Scottish Economics Show on YouTube, that between 2010 and the first indyref, the country had already gone through four years of Tory-led austerity.

This had led to libraries and other services being closed or removed, along with financial safety nets which had helped people.

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“People went into 2014 as a result of that [2008] crash, and as a result of government policies, demonstrably struggling,” he said.

“It meant that if you’ve been going through a period when you’re already worrying about your household bills, how are you going to pay for this, how you're going to cover this, it’s is the news.

“But if the press then almost collectively say, ‘if you embarked on independence all these things are going to get worse', you can completely understand why some people may be receptive to that sort of fearmongering, because it's playing on people’s … anxieties.”

Patrick said people who were struggling to make ends meet were told in 2014 independence could mean their household bills rising by £1300 a year, mortgages by £2000, which were “very real concerns” for people at every stage of their lives.

“That doomsday style reporting would have had an impact at any time because it always does,” he said. “But given the historical context of when it happened … the post-2008 especially post-2010 period … that was something that most people had experienced for the better part of five years or more.

“As long as you've got governments of any colour which are going to stick to this programme of austerity, it is going to tighten household budgets, it’s going to make people more desperate if you make them more receptive to these type of negative economic messages.”

He said he would be “fairly sure” that should there be another referendum in the next few years, the economic question would again be pushed to the front.

However, he added the 2014 arguments would be presented as having “even more weight” because Britain is in so much collective debt that Scotland could not afford independence.

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“The UK is in infinitely more collective debt in 2021 than it was in 2014, so if people believed that argument or accepted it then, it’s going to be more convincing to them now.

“It’s public knowledge that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic – having to fund the health service adequately to combat it, the furlough scheme, bounce-back business loans and various things – this whole process has cost the UK a lot of money and that is what a lot of people are aware of.

“So it means that should there be another referendum, that very simple, but for some people frightening message of ‘Scotland simply can't afford independence because of recent history’ … I can almost guarantee that will be a dominant narrative factor should there be another referendum in the next few years.

“They’ll link Scotland's poor economic prospects to the coronavirus pandemic.”