RECENT weeks have brought supply chain issues, soaring energy prices and a damning report on the handling of Covid in the UK.
So the big mystery is why the Tories in charge of the chaos still remain stubbornly ahead in the polls.
According to the latest YouGov survey of Westminster voting intention published last week, the Conservatives have extended their lead to 10 points – up two points to 41%, while Labour’s share of the vote remained the same on 31%.
Apart from a blip in September when Labour took the lead for the first time in 2021, following the Conservatives’ announcement of the social care levy, it appears despite the country descending into chaos it is doing little to dent their UK support.
A commentator in The Times, which commissioned the YouGov poll, noted: “It is a strikingly stable polling picture for a government whose ministers are having to promise that Father Christmas will beat the supply chain crisis on national television.”
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However Patrick English, research manager at YouGov, said the overall average of polls shows there has been a narrowing of the Conservative lead since supply chain issues, petrol shortages and gas prices began to bite.
“One thing we have noticed which has been incredibly strong in the data is a big change in people saying the Government is handling issues like inflation badly and the economy badly,” he said.
“There has been a real change in public opinion there, where they are no longer seeing the Conservatives as the party of competency with economics and inflation, but they think they are doing a really bad job at this at the minute.”
English said one factor in why this is failing to translate into voters choosing another party is that the prospect of another General Election is still a very long way off .
He added: “They might be thinking this Government is awful, but thinking ahead to 2024 when I’m actually going to get to vote again, who knows – I am probably just going to say the same [in the poll] as I said last week.”
When it comes to Johnson’s personal approval ratings, his lead over Keir Starmer may have shrunk, but he is still the preferred Prime Minister for 31% of those polled – the same as last month.
In contrast the Labour leader (above) was sitting on 25% – down one from last month.
English said it is not enough for one person or party to be doing badly, as voters also need to be convinced there is a better alternative.
“I would say as bad as the public think the [UK] Government are doing right now, they are not convinced Labour would do better,” he said.
“Labour are not cutting through, they are not selling the public a story of ‘we will sort these issues out, we will do better’.
“We have data on who do you think would be better on managing the economy – Labour under Keir Starmer or Conservatives under Boris Johnson.
“And the Conservatives under Boris Johnson are still way in the lead on that, even though the public think they are doing a really bad job, they still think that the economy is best handled by the Conservatives.
“There I think is the answer to the puzzle – the public have no faith and have not been convinced in the slightest that Labour and Keir Starmer offer something better or would do a better job than the bad job they think the government are doing right now.”
But in the long-term, English warned it was “danger territory” for governments when issues began directly impacting on people’s lives.
“They notice supply chain issues, as it means they can’t get petrol, they can’t get food in the supermarkets,” he said.
“Whereas if parliamentary standards are giving you a rap round the knuckles about wallpaper, I don’t think you have got much to worry about in terms of a mass sway of public opinion.
“That isn’t to say the public will never know about it or don’t think it’s a bad thing, but it is probably not going to influence their political behaviour anywhere as much as ‘I cannot get pasta’.
“The more you get into that proximity, the higher the danger is the public will react.
Barry Richards, professor of political psychology at Bournemouth University and author of The Psychology of Politics, said the Tory lead rested heavily on Johnson’s ‘Teflon-esque’ quality.
He said: “I suspect that in turn that quality is owed to his ability to present himself as ‘speaking human’ to the electorate – his informality, apparent geniality, down-to-earth pose and above all humour.
“We all like to be in the presence of someone who is funny, especially when they are in charge of things – it softens our experience of authority,” he added.
“Johnson may have overdone humour at the party conference, but for the moment enough people are still getting the agreeable vibe of being led by this confidently funny person, even though what that persona conceals has been well-documented.”
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