Decarbonising Scotland's heating systems will cost £33bn, ministers say

The new strategy, published today, lays out the total cost of the initiative – which seeks to convert the country’s building stock to zero emissions by 2045.

Up to one fifth of all greenhouse gases in Scotland come from homes and buildings and the strategy states one million homes and more than 50,000 non-domestic buildings will need to transition by 2030 – which will reduce emissions by an estimated two-thirds.

But Government funding will not be enough to cover the costs, with investment needing to peak at between £2bn and £2.5bn by the end of this decade.

At least £1.8bn of government funding will be made available to decarbonise buildings in this parliamentary term, according to the Programme for Government announced last year.

The strategy says a taskforce is being created to investigate how the additional money can be found.

READ MORE: Making buildings net-zero is crucial as energy prices surge, Greens say

“Clearly, this cost cannot be borne by the public sector alone,” the strategy said.

“We are establishing a new green heat finance taskforce to identify innovative solutions to maximise private sector investment, and find new ways to help individuals and organisations spread the upfront cost of investing in making their properties warmer, greener and more efficient.

“Public sector funding from the Scottish Government, UK Government, local authorities or investment from new institutions like the Scottish National Investment Bank will be a part of the solution to deliver the scale of transformation needed by 2045, but private investment – whether from homeowners, landlords or business paying for their own properties or from financial institutions providing financing for large scale infrastructure – must also drive progress.

“We must mobilise and work in collaboration with the private sector to leverage the scale of investment needed and to develop innovative and new approaches to financing heat decarbonisation and energy efficiency measures.”

Zero carbon buildings minister Patrick Harvie announced the strategy in his first statement to Parliament since the co-operation agreement between the Greens and SNP.

However he was unable to say how much homeowners will be likely to pay for the necessary changes, or how they will be supported by Government.

In response to a question from Labour MSP Mark Griffin, Harvie said: “Can I tell every homeowner what the precise share of investment is going to be between now and 2045 for every private home?

“No, of course I can’t do that.

“What we are doing is committing to ensure that we’re looking at a wide range of sources for that investment.

“It can’t all come from public funds.

“Even I might blanche at the idea if [Griffin] comes forward with a proposal for a £33 billion tax rise so we can fund it all from public sources.”

READ MORE: Plans revealed for Scotland's first offshore wind subsea station

The strategy claims at least 16,400 jobs will be created through the need for different heating sources by 2030.

Fabrice Leveque, Head of Policy at WWF Scotland said: “It’s particularly welcome to see some new commitments in today’s Programme for Government to place Scotland on a path to a just and green recovery. 

"If carried through, these will slash emissions, restore nature, and deliver new jobs and wider benefits to people now and for years to come. With all eyes on Scotland ahead of COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, it’s vital that these, and other policies, are implemented quickly to avoid the worst effects of climate change and further loss of nature.”

Meanwhile Morag Watson, director of policy of Scottish Renewables, welcomed the publication. 

“Scotland has some of the best renewable energy resource in Europe which can be harnessed to ensure our homes and buildings are warmed by clean energy," she commented.

“We urge the Scottish Government to ensure the commitments made in the strategy are pursued at pace to enable the delivery of our climate change targets."