Nicola Sturgeon update: Read the FM's Covid statement in full

The First Minister outlined the current state of the pandemic and sketched out plans to curb a recent surge in cases.

She said it would be “grossly irresponsible” to rule out the reintroduction of lockdown restrictions and said the Government plans to introduce vaccine certificates. 

This is her speech in full.

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Presiding Officer, I will update parliament today on the state of the pandemic in Scotland. I will discuss the recent surge in cases – and give our best assessment of the current situation.

And I will outline the additional action we are taking to try to slow transmission and reduce the spread of the virus.

However, I’ll start with the latest statistics, albeit in summary form as they were published around an hour ago.

6,170 positive cases were reported yesterday, which is 11.5% of all tests carried out.

629 people are in hospital with COVID – 44 more than yesterday.

And 59 people are in intensive care, which is five more than yesterday.

Sadly, a further nine deaths have been reported in the past 24 hours, which takes the total number of deaths registered, under the daily definition, to 8,127.

My condolences are with everyone who has lost a loved one.

Turning now to vaccination.

4,108,804 people have received a first dose and 3,691,066 have now had both doses.

That includes 95% of people over 40 who are now fully vaccinated, as well as 71% of 30 to 39 year olds, and 51% of 18 to 29 year olds.

However, 74% of 18 to 29 year olds have had a first dose, so we expect the proportion becoming fully vaccinated will continue to increase in the days ahead.

Finally, almost exactly half of all 16 and 17 year olds have now had the first jag. Vaccination in this age group started relatively recently, and work to increase uptake further is ongoing.

All 16 and 17 year olds who haven’t received a jag yet, should have received a letter yesterday inviting them to an appointment.

As members are aware, we still await advice from the JCVI on vaccinating all 12 to 15 year olds and I very much hope the evidence will allow it to give a positive recommendation very soon. We stand ready to implement it immediately if that is the case.

I will talk more about the importance of vaccination later, but I want to start by addressing the surge in cases that we have seen in recent weeks.

Case levels in Scotland are 80% higher now than they were last week, and five times higher than they were four weeks ago.

Test positivity has also risen – from around 5% at the start of August to 11.5% today. Now, as we indicated at the time, it was always likely that as restrictions were lifted, we would see cases rise.

This is a highly infectious virus, so as people mix together more it will take the opportunity to spread. And indeed cases are rising across all of the UK – and in many other countries too.

In Scotland, though, unlike England & Wales, schools have been back for some time, and we also expected that this would create a further pressure – not just as a result of increased interactions within schools, but also because we know there are certain ways, school drop offs for example, in which adults tend to mix more when schools are back.

However, despite expecting to see some increase in cases, the scale of the increase in recent weeks has been extremely concerning.

There is no doubt that this underlines the fact that Delta is significantly more transmissible than previous strains.

Just as vaccines have changed the game for us in a very good way, Delta has changed it in a very challenging way. That has been very evident to us in the last few weeks.

That is why we have been reminding the public in recent days that – if we are to avoid any re-imposition of restrictions, even in a limited way, as we all want to do – we must all play our part to slow transmission.

We have been urging everyone to comply with all the basic mitigations still in place - face coverings for example – and to follow all public health advice.

If we all do that – and I will again set out exactly what we are asking people to do later – I am hopeful that we can turn the corner without having to re-impose any restrictions.

But the next few days will be crucial in our assessment.

And what is inescapably the case is that we must turn the corner and see the sharp increase in cases level off and then come down.

Let me now explain why that is so important.

It absolutely remains the case that vaccination has significantly reduced the link between cases of COVID and serious health harm from COVID.

The proportion of people with the virus who end up in hospital is much lower now than it was pre-vaccine. Indeed that is why the record number of new cases reported in recent days has not caused a record number of hospital admissions.

That is positive - but it must not make us complacent.

Although the link between new cases and serious health harm is now much weaker, it has not been completely broken - here or anywhere in the world.

We can see that very clearly in the recent data.

On Friday 20 August, there were 312 people in hospital with COVID. Today, there are 629.

The number of people in intensive care has risen more slowly – but it has risen. On 20 August it was 34 and today it is 59.

And of course hospital figures do not capture all of the health harm caused by COVID.

For example they exclude people who don’t require hospital treatment, but still go on to suffer long COVID.

So there is a matter of basic arithmetic at play here.

If the recent surge in cases was to continue – if, for instance, we were to see cases continuing to rise to 10,000 or more a day, something I hope won’t happen, but is by no means impossible – that will have serious consequences.

A lot of people will fall seriously ill. Some will die.

And the NHS will come under even more severe pressure.

To reiterate, this is a matter of basic arithmetic. At the start of the year, daily reported cases peaked at around 2,600 and at that time – pre-vaccines – around 13% of cases were ending up in hospital.

Today, only around 2 to 3% end up in hospital. But 2 to 3% of 10,000 cases a day will cause similar pressure on our NHS as 13% of 2,600.

And this pressure is building at a time when many staff have been flat out for more than 18 months, and when the NHS is working to deal with the backlog of other cases which has been caused by the earlier waves of the pandemic.

So the situation we face just now is serious. We must stem the rise in cases.

Obviously, it would not be responsible for any government in the face of this virus - and the harm it can still do – to rule out re-introducing any restrictions. Indeed, it would be grossly irresponsible.

However, we do not want to re-impose restrictions, even in a limited way. We know only too well how much harm restrictions cause to businesses, young people’s education, and to our overall wellbeing.

But if that is to be avoided – as I hope it can be – it will take all of us making a conscious and concerted effort again to comply with all the basic mitigations that we know can slow down transmission.

And that applies to both individuals and to businesses. So let me set out some of the work government is doing – including on one particularly significant issue – and what we are asking everyone to do.

Over the last two weeks, Cabinet Secretaries have been engaging with business and sectoral organisations across the country to encourage significantly increased compliance with existing baseline measures.

That includes the wearing of face coverings, encouraging stringent hygiene, and support for continued home working where possible.

I am grateful to businesses across the country for the efforts being made to keep staff and customers safe. I am particularly grateful to those businesses continuing to support home working.

It is vital that these efforts continue. I know they are not easy for business – but they are much less onerous than any further restrictions would be.

We are also continuing to support urgent measures to improve ventilation in schools – for example the purchase and use of CO2 monitors. We are also looking at options to support better ventilation in priority workplaces.

We also continue to do everything possible to drive up the already high uptake of vaccine.

Getting vaccinated remains the single most important step that any of us can take to keep ourselves safe and keep others safe. And so ensuring that as many people as possible get vaccinated remains an absolutely key priority.

As I mentioned earlier, we expect updated advice from the JCVI soon on vaccination of 12 to 15 year olds, and on booster jabs for vulnerable groups such as older people and those with compromised immune systems.

We will move to implement any extensions to the vaccine programme just as soon as we get the JCVI recommendations.

We are also taking targeted steps to increase uptake amongst groups who are already eligible for vaccination.

I mentioned earlier that an invitation letter has now been sent to all 16 and 17 year olds who have not yet had a first dose.

Mobile vaccination units will be used during university and college freshers’ weeks to encourage students who haven’t already done so to get vaccinated.

And we will be concentrating further effort in the days ahead to encourage anyone in the under 40 age group who hasn’t had the vaccine yet – or who hasn’t taken up the second dose - to do so now.

It really is impossible to overstate the importance of vaccination in getting us safely through this phase and the winter months ahead.

By getting vaccinated we help keep ourselves and others safe.

But the reverse of that is equally true – not getting vaccinated, if you are eligible, puts yourself and others at greater risk and it makes it less likely that we make it through the winter without having to reintroduce some restrictions.

So to everyone out there who hasn’t already had their jags – please do your civic duty. Please get vaccinated now – for your own sake and for all of us.

Presiding Officer, The final issue I want to address is vaccine certification - where entry to some venues is dependent on people being able to show that they have been fully vaccinated.

In recent months there has been a lot of discussion about vaccine certification and, as I have indicated before, the government has been considering very carefully whether - notwithstanding the understandable equity and ethical concerns - vaccine certification could in some settings help protect public health, reduce the necessity for any further restrictions, and also boost vaccine take up.

The Scottish Government has made it clear that we do not believe that vaccination certification should ever be a requirement for any key services or in settings where people have no choice over attendance – for example, public transport, education, access to medical services or shops. We continue to hold to that position.

But we do consider that a limited use of vaccine certification could help to control the spread of the virus, as we head into the autumn and winter.

For any decision of this nature to have an impact before winter, we would have to take and implement it quickly. However, I recognise that it is a significant decision so, in my view, it should be expressly authorised by Parliament.

I therefore propose, subject to the Presiding Officer’s agreement, that we have a full debate and vote on this matter next week.

To help prepare for it, I will set out now what the Government – after much consideration – has concluded would be appropriate.

We propose, subject to Parliament’s agreement, that vaccination certification should be introduced later this month – once all adults have had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated – for the following events and venues:

• Nightclubs and adult entertainment venues
• unseated indoor live events, with more than 500 people in the audience
• unseated outdoor live events, with more than 4,000 people in the audience
• and any event, of any nature, which has more than 10,000 people in attendance.

We do not currently consider it appropriate to introduce certification for the hospitality industry as a whole, and hope that it will not be necessary to do so. However, we will be keeping that under review.

We are also very aware of the need to take account of people who – for good reason – cannot get fully vaccinated with both doses of the vaccine. So for example we envisage that children and people with particular medical conditions would be exempt.

However we consider that to help protect individuals and the country as a whole and reduce the risk of further restrictions being necessary those over 18 years old, who are eligible for vaccination, should be required to show they have received both doses of the vaccine before entry to the premises and events I mentioned earlier.

It is already possible to request that a paper copy of your vaccination record be posted to you to allow you to travel.

However from this Friday onwards – so well in advance of any certification scheme coming into operation – we will also provide a QR code. This means you will also be able to download a copy of your vaccination record to keep on your phone or print off instantly.

The introduction of COVID certificates – even in the fairly limited circumstances that I have set out above – is a significant move, and not one we would ever take lightly. That is why I believe it should have parliamentary approval in advance.

But it is worth stressing that although we have had to weigh this decision carefully, we would be in no way unique in taking this step.

The UK Government has announced its intention to introduce certification for England.

And several European countries – including France, Italy and Ireland – have already introduced certification. In fact, the certification rules in several of those countries cover a far wider range of venues than the ones we are currently planning for Scotland. Many of the events and venues that are covered by the certification scheme are important – they matter to our economy, and to our cultural and social life. That’s why we want to enable them to stay open safely.

But they are not essential services. And the nature of them, which involves bringing many people together in relatively small areas does mean that, despite their very best efforts, they can contribute significantly to the spread of the virus.

By ensuring that people entering these settings are fully vaccinated, we would be taking a proportionate step to help make these settings safer for everyone attending and, by extension, for all of us.

Presiding Officer, As I said earlier, I fervently hope that – vaccine certification aside – we do not have to impose any further legal restrictions.

But that depends on all of us making a concerted effort now, through our own behaviours, to stem transmission.

What we do know is we cannot let cases continue to rise at the pace of recent weeks. We must slow it down.

That’s important for all of us as individuals, but especially for those who are most vulnerable to COVID.

We know that there are many of the people at highest risk from COVID – including many of those who were advised to shield at the start of the pandemic – who are particularly anxious about the current situation.

They worry that if they go outside their own home, especially with cases so high, they will be put at risk by people not wearing face coverings, washing their hands or trying to keep a safe distance.

And that should be a reminder for all of us. When we take basic precautions, we’re not simply protecting ourselves – although we are, and that’s important.

We are also making life easier and safer, and helping to reduce anxiety, for many others too.

So I will close by once again stressing the actions that each and every one of us needs to take in order to do that – and to help get cases down without further restrictions.

First, as I stressed earlier, if you are eligible and haven’t yet done so, please get vaccinated. This remains the single most important thing we can all do to keep each other safe.

There are drop-in vaccination centres in every mainland health board area.

So if you haven’t been vaccinated yet – or if you had your first dose 8 or more weeks ago, and haven’t had a second dose – you can turn up at your nearest centre and get the jag.

Second, please test yourself regularly with lateral flow devices. If you do that, then if you have the virus but don’t have symptoms, you still have a chance of finding that out, before inadvertently passing the virus on to others.

You can order free lateral flow tests through the NHS inform website. The tests will then be sent to you in the post, or you can collect them from local pharmacies or test sites.

If you test positive through one of these lateral flow devices – or if you have symptoms of the virus – make sure that you self-isolate, and book a PCR test.

You might also be told to self-isolate, pending a PCR test – as I was at the start of the week – if you are a contact of someone who has tested positive.

In any of these situations, please make sure that you do self-isolate. It remains a really important way in which we can all slow the spread of the virus.

And thirdly and finally, please follow the rules and guidelines which are still in place.

So please remember it is still a requirement to wear face coverings in indoor public places, such as shops, public transport and when entering and moving about in hospitality settings. That’s a simple but important way in which we can protect each other.

More generally, meet outdoors as much as possible.

If you are indoors, open the windows – good ventilation makes a big difference. And avoid crowded places.

Indeed, for the next couple of weeks, think carefully about the number of contacts you are having and perhaps reduce any that are unnecessary.

Even though it’s not the law any more, keep a safe distance from people in other households if you can – especially indoors.

Minimise physical contact – like handshaking, for example.

And wash your hands and surfaces thoroughly.

Having to take these steps is frustrating – but it really does make a difference. It helps to limit the spread of COVID.

And we must do that.

We must do it to keep ourselves and our loved ones safer.

And we must do it to help ensure that we can avoid the need for any further restrictions.

The next days are crucial. The government is doing everything it can. But – as has been the case throughout – we need your help.

So please – get vaccinated, get tested, and tighten up again on following the rules and guidelines.