NICOLA Sturgeon’s government’s deal with the Scottish Greens is expected to face a “tight” vote when it goes to members of Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater’s party at the end of this month, according to sources.
Insiders say members of the party will be weighing up if being a part of government will advance their policies more than exerting influence in opposition over a minority administration.
The grassroots will also decide if going into government could present any drawbacks for the party, and if so, whether this would be a price worth paying for the Greens being in power for the first time in the UK.
The Scottish Greens have repeatedly underlined their leverage over the Scottish Government from 2016 to 2021.
Successive budget talks have seen the Scottish Government agree to Green demands, including a reform of income tax which saw Scotland implement a new five-band income model, a pay rise for public sector workers, extra money for local services and free bus travel for the under-22s.
Green parliamentary votes also saw the party successfully persuade former education secretary John Swinney – who was facing a no confidence motion in Holyrood – to scrap pupils’ downgraded exam results and accept awards based solely on teacher or lecturer judgement.
Should the Greens’ grassroots approve the deal, it will be the first time a Green party in the UK has been part of a national government.
But no formal arrangement can be put in place without the consent of the party’s members.
All 7500 members are to be invited to an online emergency meeting on August 28 to debate and vote on whether to give it their approval.
The Scottish Greens’ constitution requires a power-sharing deal at Holyrood to be put to a full vote of the membership, and a two-thirds majority vote by its ruling council.
“The membership will be hung up on some of the policy issues and the politics of the deal. There will be some members who don’t want the party to do a deal over specific concerns. For instance, some may want to see the Gender Recognition Act reform implemented swiftly, which might be hard for the Government to do.
"If you are governing it’s difficult to give firm commitments on legislation when it’s got to get through parliament,” one insider told The National.
READ MORE: Why a co-operation deal between SNP and Greens might not go very well
“There might be other concerns among Greens on housing, local government, council tax.”
The source stated: “I think [the vote] could be tight. It is not a foregone conclusion. The membership are well able to defy the leadership when they want to. There has been talk of two ministerial roles and members can be distrustful of motives.”
Greens members will also be looking at how parties have fared elsewhere when going into government either in coalition or in a “co-operation” style deal proposed by the Scottish Government. The Irish Greens have participated in the government twice, from 2007 to 2011 as junior partners in a coalition with Fianna Fail, and since June 2020 in a coalition with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
Following the first period in government, the party suffered a wipeout in the February 2011 election, losing all six of its TDs. The party also had a turbulent start in government in the second coalition, leading to a series of internal rows and high-profile resignations from the left by people opposed to the coalition.
However, the Greens have fared well after going into government with Labour in New Zealand. Last year they accepted prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s offer of a “co-operation agreement”, offering two ministries and agreeing to a handful of shared policy priorities for her second term. Labour won the general election in October with an outright majority, meaning they could govern alone.
READ MORE: New Zealand-style SNP-Green co-operation deal being studied by civil servants
But Ardern invited the Greens into a “co-operation” agreement, saying it would allow the government to benefit from the expertise of Green party members in areas such as the environment, climate change and child wellbeing.
The parties there agreed to work together on climate change, environment, child wellbeing and “marginalised communities”, while the deal did not bind the Greens from speaking out against government policies they disagree with.
Negotiations in Scotland began after the May election. Earlier this month it was reported that the deal was close to being completed, with reports last weekend suggesting it would be published later this week.
The SNP have been approached to find out if party members have a say in the deal being approved.
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