IT may end in farce or tragedy, but England’s so-called Freedom Day will certainly be memorable as that country opens up and mask wearing is no longer compulsory for most people.

The farcical element provided by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak yesterday morning with their U-turn on not isolating continued when it was learned that the grand speech planned for today by Johnson had been called off in the light of the soaring level of cases across England.

The speech had been trailed and was to have been a mixture of celebrating the end of lockdown and asking people to remain sensible. The fact that Johnson himself won’t go ahead with the speech suggests he is even now worrying that Freedom Day could go terribly wrong.

The UK Government’s former advisor thinks it will. Neil Ferguson said it was “almost inevitable” that today’s rush to unlock would bring on 100,000 daily cases, with about 1000 hospitalisations – despite roughly half the population being doubly vaccinated.

Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Ferguson said: “The real question is do we get to double that – or even higher. And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. I mean, we could get to 2000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day – but it’s much less certain.”

He added: “If you have enough cases, you can still have quite significant burden on the healthcare system … major disruption of services and cancellation of elective surgery and the backlog in the NHS getting longer and longer. We’ll know it’s worked when case numbers plateau and start going down, we know then hospitalisations and deaths will take some more weeks.

“The best projections suggest that could happen any time from, really, mid-August to mid-September. So, we will have to be patient.

“It’ll also take us three weeks before we know the effect of Monday, of relaxing restrictions, and what that will do to case numbers. So, it’s going to be quite a period of time.”

READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon says 'Freedom Day' in England 'not sensible' due to rising cases

Dr Julian Tang, clinical virologist at Leicester University, said masks should continue to be worn.

“Masks work both ways,” he told the Observer. “If you assume that a mask at least halves transmission, that means that for every 1000 virus particles an infected person breathes out, only 500 will leave your mask.

“Then, when those particles reach someone else, similarly their masks will ensure at least a twofold reduction in the number of viruses reaching their mouths or noses. In other words, of the 1000 virus particles an infected person has breathed out, only 250 or so will reach another person. That should reduce infection rates, and that is why masks are important.”

Previously the UK Government’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty, had warned that the number of people hospitalised with Covid-19 could hit “quite scary” levels.

“I don’t think we should underestimate the fact that we could get into trouble again surprisingly fast,” he said.

More evidence of confusion in government came as UK Communities Minister Robert Jenrick said that Transport for London (TfL) is taking part in a test-and-trace pilot scheme.

Jenrick claimed TfL was one of 20 public bodies taking part in the scheme, which would see daily testing replace self-isolation.

That was news to TfL whose spokesperson said: “The current test-and-trace rules on self-isolation have led to vital control room staff being unable to come to work, causing disruption on some tube lines.

“The Government has indicated that we could be part of a trial whereby daily tests would replace the need for self-isolation. We are still waiting for formal notification from them that we are part of this trial so that we can brief our trade unions and put this into effect.”

London Mayor Sadiq Khan has ordered that masks remain compulsory on all TfL services. Perhaps the biggest fear was expressed by the people who have had to deal with bereavement because of the pandemic.

Jo Goodman, co-founder of Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, said: “The overwhelming scientific consensus is that lifting restrictions on Monday will be disastrous, and bereaved families know first-hand how tragic the consequences of unlocking too early can be.

“There is a real fear that once again the Government’s thinking is being driven by what’s popular rather than the interests of the country.”

Another fear is that people visiting Scotland from England will not be aware that the rules have not changed so significantly here. Masks must continue to be worn on all public transport, for instance.