LEADING scientists who have warned Boris Johnson’s relaxing of Covid restrictions is a “dangerous and unethical experiment” have urged Scotland to take a more cautious approach and not “give up”.
Measures such as wearing of face masks in public spaces and banning mass events should continue north of the border, experts say.
Despite soaring case numbers, England is on course for ditching almost all coronavirus rules – including face masks and home working – on July 19, dubbed “Freedom Day”.
More than 100 doctors and health experts last week signed an open letter published in medical journal The Lancet, urging the UK Government to reconsider allowing “mass infection” as a third wave of the virus takes hold.
It said this will heap pressure on the NHS and risks “creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come”.
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The letter also warned the strategy “provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants”.
That view was echoed yesterday by Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling Government advisory panel, who said having more cases could “challenge” the virus and lead to mutations where vaccines are less effective.
Nicola Sturgeon has described the UK Government’s approach as “something of an exception” and will outline her next steps on Tuesday, including whether Scotland can move to Level 0 by July 19 as was planned.
Among the signatories to The Lancet letter was Professor Alastair Leyland, associate director of the MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit at University of Glasgow.
He said that despite the level of vaccination achieved, some of the 100,000 cases a day in the UK over the summer which have been predicted after relaxation of restrictions will result in serious illness and deaths.
He said the most recent figures suggest a case fatality rate of around 0.2% – meaning this could result in around 200 deaths a day in the UK.
“The infections will be disproportionally concentrated in poorer populations resulting in further increases in health inequalities,” he said.
“But it is not just deaths: an increase in cases will lead to an increase in hospitalisations, with consequent pressure on the NHS, and an increase in the number of people with long covid, the Consequences of which are still to be seen in full.”
Leyland said if Scotland continues to see a higher incidence of cases than the rest of the UK, the predicted 200 deaths a day could equate to 25 deaths a day north of the Border.
He added: “A relaxation of restrictions in Scotland will inevitably lead to an increase in transmission of SARS-CoV-2, so the solution is to wait a little longer until there are fewer cases in the community.
“Starting from a lower base should reduce the risk of large increases in hospitalisations and deaths and reduce the need for the reintroduction of further lockdown measures.”
Consultant microbiologist Dr Christine Peters, a member of the NHS Fresh Air group which campaigns for better protection against Covid-19 for healthcare workers, raised concerns over the increased risk of hospital-acquired and health care infections.
“I would like to see Scotland take a different path – continuing with public mask mandates for indoor spaces, and investing significantly and rapidly in ensuring education facilities in both schools and universities are able to mitigate airborne risk of infection through ventilation and air cleaning strategies,” she added.
She said taking a rigorous and more science-based approach in Scotland could result in a more rapid reduction in cases and fewer deaths.
“Refusal to give up in Scotland would give us the best chance to get the economy and health recovery we all long for,” she added.
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David Cameron, professor of medical oncology at Edinburgh University, said returning to a “free for all” of normal social mixing would lead to a massive upturn in cases, impacting on the health service.
He also pointed to examples of mass events such as Cheltenham races and the Liverpool football match last year, and the recent England-Scotland football clash at Wembley as “excellent ways of infecting lots of people”.
He said: “I think many of us medics think that they should still not be allowed, but we should continue to gradually open up smaller scale social mixing but keep things like social distancing, masks in public as they help slow the rate of infection.
“This way the impact on the economy is much less which is important, but there is still of course some personal restriction for the greater good.”
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