BREXIT has costs scientists £1.5 billion in grants from the EU Horizon 2020 programme since the referendum in 2016, according to a new analysis from Scientists for EU on the fifth anniversary of the vote to leave the bloc.

The campaign group said researchers across the UK were overwhelmingly opposed to Brexit and the estimates of lost funding show their concerns “were justified”, as the value of grants steadily plummeted until the programme ended last December.

The said the UK was consistently neck-and-neck with Germany over many years on participation and total grant amounts.

“If the UK had not voted for Brexit and kept pace with Germany, it would have won some £1.46bn more in grants than was the case,” they said.

Between 2017 and 2020, the UK dropped from a longstanding joint first place to fifth place and, by 2020, it won less money and participated in fewer projects than Germany, France, Spain and Italy – and was only just ahead of the Netherlands.

Without Brexit, the group estimated the UK would have participated in 2742 more projects, or about 30% than it actually did, from 2017-2020.

Among the reasons for disruption were the constant threat of a possible no-deal situation, given there was no agreement on the terms under which the UK would leave the EU until late in 2019, and uncertainty over the UK’s long-term future in EU research programmes.

“This made the UK a higher risk partner in consortia, and it was also higher risk for UK institutions to put in applications, not knowing what the long-term future held,” said the group.

Horizon 2020 has finished distributing all its grants and the new €95bn (£73bn) Horizon Europe is starting up, which raises the question of if and how the UK can build back its position, or if too much momentum been lost.

The European Commission has put the UK on a list of 18 would-be associate countries it says can start applying for grants pro tem, said the group, until final formal agreements are put in place.

UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), the main UK public funding agency is encouraging academic and researchers to start applying for Horizon Europe grants.

However, Scientists for EU added: “Is the agreement certain and stable enough that UK institutions feel confident enough to compete?

“Do EU and other associated countries feel as confident as they were pre-Brexit to take on a UK partner?”

Mike Galsworthy, director of Scientists for EU, said: “Looking ahead, UK science will want to regain quickly its leading role on the European science programme.

“Brexit uncertainty over five years has knocked the UK’s position down several rungs and blown a huge hole in our funds and networks.

“We do need a plan to build back better in Europe after Brexit, and this is not something the government can ignore.”

Dame Anne Glover, former president of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, former EU chief science adviser and a supporter of Scientists for EU, said the damage from five years of Brexit uncertainty and antagonism has been immense for UK researchers, who were so used to being able to collaborate with colleagues all over the continent.

“To stop the decline, we must engage in positive initiatives fast,” she said.

“The Royal Society of Edinburgh recently launched the Saltire Research Awards in collaboration with the Scottish Funding Council and the Scottish Government, in a bid to reinvigorate Scotland’s research partnerships with Europe following the double blow of Brexit and Covid-19.

“That initiative is the kind of bounce-back and re-engagement we need. Not just in Scotland, but everywhere.

“[Prime minister] Boris Johnson talks of the UK being a ‘science superpower’ but this will only be achieved by an appreciation that he has a huge amount of recent vandalism to undo on the way back to any such international position.”