‘THE momentum is with the independence movement” as Wales prepares to go to the polls, Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price says.

In the history of the Senedd, Labour has never lost control in Cardiff Bay. The latest polling puts Mark Drakeford’s party on course to become the largest party again – but without an overall majority. Plaid, it is thought, could now become key to the next five years of the devolved government.

Polling now puts Plaid, which once trailed on single figures, at around 20% – similar to the Welsh Conservatives – and Price’s party is now making similar progress to that of the SNP prior to the 2007 election.

More than a third of Welsh voters, surveys show, would now back Yes, with independence support surging during the last year as the Senedd’s response to the pandemic repeatedly diverged from Westminster’s approach.

This, non-party independence campaign Yes Cymru says, has been key to instilling confidence about what a sovereign Wales could achieve. Its membership has rocketed from 2000 to more than 17,000 since the start of 2020 and as in Scotland, its polling finds that younger voters are keener on change than their elders.

And while a further win for anti-indy Labour, after more than 20 years in power, would indeed be a feat, current data suggests that success would be on a par with the 2007 result – its worst Welsh election performance.

The independence question is more prominent now than ever in Wales and in contrast with Scotland, where Anas Sarwar’s team deselected one candidate for expressing openness to a further referendum, a handful of Labour candidates have gone public about their Yes stance.

READ MORE: English elections will be a crucial test for Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer

Appearing on Sky News, Price said he is now “not prepared to concede any other possibility than surging support – not just for the independence movement but for Plaid Cymru”. He went on: “If young people, in particular, are supporting independence and Plaid Cymru in unprecedented numbers, if they turn out to vote, then I think that we are ... looking at the possibility of a historic result for Plaid Cymru and for Wales in this election.”

But it’s not all one-way travel – Ukip, which won seven seats at the last election, has vowed to hold a referendum on scrapping the Senedd. Then there’s the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, which, well, you get the idea.

Despite polling at around 3-8%, its leader Richard Suchorzewski was granted a place on the BBC leaders’ debate. The party’s two members of the Senedd are Ukip defectees and it’s disaffected former Ukip voters that could cost Labour its majority, according to analysis from Savanta ComRes.

From its 2016 high, Ukip ended the last parliamentary term with just one MS and its disintegration will likely benefit the Tories and Abolish, it is claimed.

Labour says it remains “the party of devolution”. But, appearing on Sophy Ridge on Sunday, Drakeford said his party has “always worked across party lines, where other progressive parties can agree on a programme for government”. Referring to the presence of a LibDem minister and an independent minister within his government, he added: “If we need to work with other parties, let’s see if we can have a progressive programme for a progressive nation.”

Whatever the outcome, the relationship with the leaders in Cardiff is one of strategic importance for the Scottish Government, which in the last year worked with the Welsh Government in a bid to salvage membership of the European student exchange scheme Erasmus and to oppose the Tories’ Internal Market Bill.