A POLL published today which found independence is supported by just 42% of Scots has been labelled a “possible outlier” after a second poll found the nation remains evenly divided on the question.
A Savanta ComRes poll published today, conducted for the Scotsman between April 23 and April 27, found 42% of voters would back independence while 49% would vote No.
If the remaining 8% of undecided voters are removed, the poll found a strong 54/46 split in favour of the Union.
However, James Kelly’s ScotGoesPop blog has now also published the results of its Panelbase poll.
Conducted between April 21 and April 26, it found a lead of just 1% for No.
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Kelly said it was just two respondents who had “swung the balance” from an even 50/50 split.
The Panelbase poll found that 47% of Scots said they would vote Yes if indyref2 were held today, while 48% said they would vote No.
When the 6% of people who are undecided are removed, the results are 49.3% for Yes and 50.7% for No. Rounded up this gives No a two-percentage point lead over Yes, with a 49/51 split.
The Panelbase poll is the sixth conducted this month to give No a lead over Yes. One poll has found a tie in support for either side, while two have found independence is the majority view.
Two further polls which were conducted from March into April put Yes in the lead.
Writing on his blog, Kelly said the results from the Panelbase poll tell “a far better story for Yes than today's Savanta ComRes poll, which is left looking like a possible outlier”.
He goes on: “Bear in mind that the Panelbase and ComRes fieldwork dates overlap to a significant extent … It would be a bit of a stretch to claim that the ComRes poll is more up to date and picked up a swing that Panelbase couldn't.
“Remember also that recent Survation and Ashcroft polls are bang in line with Panelbase in showing Yes on 49%, and while the last YouGov poll put the figure at 47%, that was only a 2% decrease from a firm that is typically on the No-friendly end of the spectrum.
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“So that's all fairly consistent with the suspicion that the new ComRes poll may be underestimating Yes due to random sampling variation.
“For now at least, it looks like public opinion on independence continues to be essentially split down the middle, which is an excellent starting point for a referendum campaign.”
The analyst also highlights figures from the Panelbase poll which he says may “partly explains why Yes don't have an outright lead”.
It found that, among Labour voters, just 28% are pro-independence. This is not as strong a showing for Yes among that party’s supporters as in other polls.
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