PRO-INDEPENDENCE parties could take 80 seats in the Scottish Parliament after May 6, according to the latest poll.
A survey by Panelbase, carried out for ScotGoesPop, predicts the SNP will miss out on an overall majority. However, it projects a pro-independence majority of 31 seats with the SNP on 61, Greens on 11 and Alba on 8.
Panelbase put Alex Salmond’s Alba support on 6%, the third successive poll from the company to do so.
Constituency voting intentions saw the SNP down two points to 45%, Labour up two points to 22%, Tories down three points to 20%, LibDems up two points to 8% and Greens on 4%, representing no change.
READ MORE: Scottish party leaders to go head-to-head in first UK-wide TV debate
On the list the SNP were on 36%, no change, Tories were on 21%, down one point, Labour were on 18%, up one point, and the Greens on 10%, up one point. Meanwhile Alba recorded 6%, LibDems recorded 6% and All for Unity recorded 2%, all representing no change from Panelbase’s previous study.
The poll was carried out among 1075 adults in Scotland from April 21-26.
James Kelly, who runs the ScotGoesPop blog, wrote: “If that's how it turns out, Alba will arguably have succeeded in bringing about the 'supermajority' they promised, albeit with the Greens playing a crucial role as well. Pro-indy parties in combination are projected to have 80 seats, which amounts to 62% of the 129 seats in the parliament.
“The key is that the Greens and Alba are doing well at the same time - it's not as if there's just a rearranging of the deckchairs with one pro-indy party gaining list seats at the expense of another,” he added.
Kelly noted a change among SNP voters from the previous General Election within the Panelbase poll. “Only 70% of people who voted SNP in the 2019 Westminster General Election are planning to vote SNP on the list this year, but the vast majority of the others are going to other pro-indy parties - 11% to Alba and 13% to the Greens. And the figures are very similar among Yes voters from 2014 - 12% are voting Alba on the list and 14% for the Greens, with 60% in the SNP column,” he explained.
READ MORE: Two new polls predict pro-independence majority at Holyrood election
Two polls last week also put the Parliament on course for pro-independence majorities, although to differing degrees.
A Savanta ComRes poll for the Scotsman put the SNP on track for 63 MSPs, two short of a majority, with the Greens to return eight MSPs. Alba’s support was recorded at 1%.
Meanwhile a YouGov poll for The Times put the SNP on course for a majority with the Greens on 10% and Alba on 2%.
Tonight Channel 4 will broadcast a debate between the leaders of the SNP, Greens, LibDems, Tories and Labour from 7pm.
Journalist Krishnan Guru-Murthy will chair the debate – there will be no opening statements or audience questions.
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