A POLITICAL leader has cast doubt on widely circulated research that sounded a warning about the integrity of postal voting.

Dave Thompson, leader of Action for Independence, was speaking after carrying out his own assessment of a report by the Democratic Socialist Federation (DSF) on how postal ballots (PBs) were manipulated at the 2014 independence referendum, which The National reported earlier this month.

That was compiled from research by Andy Anderson, from Saltcoats in North Ayrshire, and six other members of the Labour for Independence (LfI) group who attended the count in the Argyll and Bute constituency, and concluded that the postal ballot had been “interfered with”.

However, former SNP MSP Thompson said his assessment “debunked” that claim.

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“The DSF report is extremely misleading but even if it was correct and MI5, or similar, had interfered with the PBs this would have had a minimal effect on the result of the 2014 referendum,” he said.

“DSF claim that MI5, or similar, posted ‘unused’ PB’s supporting No near the end of the campaign but, even if this were the case, it could only have affected a maximum of 0.62% of the total votes cast and had no effect on the outcome.

“I believe it debunks the report comprehensively.”

Thompson said the crux of the DSF report was the higher percentage turnout of PBs than voters to polling stations and that they had voted by 70% to 30% for No: “The figures used show an overall turnout at the referendum of 88.2% whereas PB turnout was 94.43%, a difference of 6.23% which DSF thought was significant, and had been manipulated.

“It is well known by anyone who has been involved in election campaigns, especially in the Highlands, that PB turnout is normally higher than polling station turnout and that the Unionist parties have, historically, been much better at getting their supporters registered for PBs, so a higher figure is not really surprising.”

The total PBs cast in the referendum was 673,942 or 18.2% of the total referendum vote which equated to 94.43% of all PBs. If PB turnout had been the same as that at the polling stations which was 88.2% then only 629,479 PBs would have been cast, a reduction of 44,463 or 1.23% of the total referendum vote cast, which was 3,619,915 votes.

“So, presuming that half the higher PB turnout was real that leaves half which may have been manipulated, only 22,232 or 0.62% of the total vote compared to the NO victory of 10.6%.”

Thompson said any such manipulation could only have added at most 0.62% to the No vote as these ballots would not otherwise have been used, and compared to the No victory of 10.6% (55.25% to 44.65%). He said the MI5 manipulation theory was undermined as any additional PBs would have to be posted very close to polling day to ensure only “unused” ones were sent, as the returning officers’ computers would have spotted duplicates as they were entered into the system.

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“The exception to this would, of course, have been those folk registered who had passed away, but the total number of these would be minimal,” he said.

“Given that PBs can be handed in right up to polling day at a polling station this would have been a risky ploy which could easily have been revealed and not worth the risk.

“The DSF report is nonsense but is cleverly put together. It may mislead many who worry about state interference in Scottish independence referendums, with the effect of discouraging many Yes supporters from registering for PBs and thereby reducing the Yes vote in the next referendum.

“Perhaps that is the real ploy here.”

Anderson retorted: “I note his remark that the report is cleverly put together, but it was cleverly put together to raise important questions. Does he have answers for the questions?”