THE Unionist campaign will become even more fractured if the Tories fail to win the battle for second place in the Holyrood elections, according to Scotland’s top polling expert.

While the SNP is predicted to secure the largest number of seats, the issue of who will become the official opposition is one of the unknowns of next month’s elections.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar last week won praise for his performance during the BBC leaders’ debate – the first big showdown of the 2021 election.

In contrast, Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross was widely criticised for his efforts during the debate as he tried to hammer home his party’s opposition to indyref2.

Meanwhile a poll last week carried out by Survation on behalf of DC Thomson was the latest to put Labour overtaking Tories to win second place at Holyrood.

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Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University said the failure of the Tories to hold off the threat of Labour would have implications when it comes to a potential second independence referendum.

He said the current position of the Tories being the UK Government and leadership of the opposition in Scotland was an advantage for Boris Johnson.

“There isn’t any challenge to them as the political leaders of Unionism in Scotland,” he said.

“If there were to be a referendum at the moment, then it is probably the case that the Tories would be leading the charge against the Yes side.”

But he added: “If on the other hand, the Labour Party overtake the Tories at Holyrood it will certainly make the fracturing of the Unionists more difficult to manage, because there is then who should be leading this campaign?

“In 2014 you had a Labour person in Scotland in the form of Alistair Darling normally in charge of the campaign, but a lot of the tactics were being decided by Cameron and Osborne down south, so that was a bit of tension that was never really adequately resolved.

“That will just become much more difficult as you will then say what’s our best way of defeating the SNP – maybe it should be a Labour head rather than a Tory? It is very difficult to manage.”

He added: “Fundamentally one of the reasons why they don’t want a referendum is it is very, very difficult for the Unionist side to find somebody behind whom they might be willing to unite.”

Curtice said coming in third place would also weaken the Tories’ refusal to recognise the case for a referendum if the SNP win a majority.

“They are the party that is most ardently saying no referendum on any conditions,” he said.

“It will not help Boris Johnson’s cause if indeed he is determined to stop a referendum – that is clearly the case.”

Curtice cautioned that Survation was different to other polls in putting Labour ahead, but said the contest was still tight with the party only a couple of points behind the Tories when looking at the average across polls.

He also warned against exaggerating the impact of Sarwar’s performance so far, saying he is facing a “tough battle” in an election that is dominated by the independence debate.

“He faces a difficult backdrop as support for the Labour Party across the UK as a whole is not what it was – that is not helpful,” he said.

“He is not allowed to talk about Brexit – that is not very helpful up here and he doesn’t want to talk about independence, that is pretty difficult given it is absolutely clear this is a fundamental fault line at this election.

“He is having to try to move the agenda on to a different subject – he wants to talk about inequality and public services and doing quite a good job of all of that.

“But you are not just trying to persuade people of your views on the subject of the day.

“You are actually trying to persuade people that the subject which does seem to be dominating the views of most voters – independence – is actually one which they should be ignoring.”

Curtice said the advantage for Sarwar is that Labour is the party which could stop the SNP from getting an overall majority, while the Tories were “fishing in very narrow waters” of mainly Leave voters.

“You find around 20% of people who say they are going to vote for the SNP say yes they could conceive voting for Labour,” he said.

“But equally it works both ways – Labour voters are much more likely than Tory voters to say they could conceivably vote for the SNP.”

At the last Scottish election in 2016, the Tories more than doubled their seats from 15 to 31 under the leadership of Ruth Davidson.

SINCE becoming leader of the party in August last year, Ross’s record has included having to apologise for missing a VJ ceremony to work at a football match and pushing failed votes of no confidence in Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney.

When it comes to the popularity of party leaders, Curtice said the most useful indication was how they are viewed from within their own party.

He added: “Looking at how popular is Sturgeon among SNP supporters – the answer is very popular, around 90%.

“Sarwar and Ross are nowhere near that among their own supporters.

“Once upon a time Davidson was able to gather a degree of popularity which outpaced that of her party – Douglas Ross is not currently in

that class.”