A LOT is riding on the forthcoming Scottish Parliament election, especially when it comes to securing a Yes majority of MSPs and the referendum to deliver Scottish independence.
With the 2011 Holyrood election, it was the successful #BothVotesSNP campaign that delivered the SNP its majority and the 2014 independence referendum. When the votes were counted in 2011, across Scotland the SNP won 53 constituencies and 16 list seats, securing a total of 69 out of 129 MSPs. It was a stunning success to win a parliamentary majority through an electoral system designed to deny the SNP a majority.
The SNP won four list seats in the South of Scotland; three in the Highlands and Islands; three in Central Scotland; two in Glasgow; two in West of Scotland; one in Mid Scotland and Fife; and, most remarkably, one in North East Scotland. This was in addition to the SNP having won every single one of the 10 constituencies in the region. Across Scotland, the SNP constituency and list vote was within 1.4%. Not only had almost all SNP voters cast #BothVotesSNP, they had as a result delivered the one and only majority government in the history of devolution.
In 2016, the SNP lost seats in the Scottish Parliament because people thought they could game the electoral system by splitting their two votes. It was a costly mistake as Holyrood actually ended up with fewer pro-independence MSPs. While the SNP dipped 2.3% on the regional list vote and the Greens edged up 2.2% it wasn’t a straight swap in seats. The SNP lost six seats and the Greens gained four, a net loss of two pro-independence MSPs. This led to Unionist politicians claiming there wasn’t a mandate for a Scottish independence referendum.
READ MORE: Viewers across Scotland react to launch of Alex Salmond's Alba Party
In the coming election, there are a wide range of groups and individuals (none of whom are polling enough to get elected), who are suggesting that pro-independence voters should split their ticket: voting SNP in their constituency and for them on the regional list.
That would be unpardonable folly and a reckless gamble with the future. There are too many variable factors involving the relative performance of all parties to gamble on producing a net gain, but actually grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory. What is absolutely certain, is that if the SNP are polling well and manage to match its constituency and list votes it will super-charge pro-independence representation in the Scottish Parliament.
Already there are quite a number of pro-indy pop-up parties that spuriously claim they can deliver extra Holyrood seats at no cost to the SNP. The latest venture is Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, which was launched yesterday at a press conference so amateurish it could have been organised by Alan Partridge.
The prominent role for anti-SNP blogger Stuart “Wings” Campbell should end any lingering doubts about what the venture is all about. This has nothing to do with delivering Scottish independence and everything to do with egos.
Most recent polling on net favourability ratings for party leaders is helpful in gauging what the public might make of this. According to the poll conducted by Opinium between March 11 and 16, Nicola Sturgeon is miles ahead with a 20-point net positive rating. In contrast Labour’s Anas Sarwar is at -3, Douglas Ross is at -26 and Alex Salmond is languishing at -60. There are reasons for that.
Just as we can begin to see light at the end of the pandemic tunnel, we need to focus our efforts on re-electing the responsible, sensible and experienced leadership Scotland needs from Nicola Sturgeon. What we don’t need is to be sidetracked by electoral ego trips which could actually undermine the prospects of an independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.
READ MORE: Joanna Cherry confirms she will not be joining Alex Salmond's Alba Party
There are now only 41 days until polling day in the Scottish Parliament election. There are only three weeks until up to 40% of the electorate receive their postal votes.
This election must be about putting Scotland’s recovery in Scotland’s hands, not actively undermining the prospects for an independence majority and independence referendum.
This election is arguably the most important in Scottish history. It will determine whether we go on to hold an independence referendum or not.
The facts are clear: if the SNP match their list and constituency results it can secure a super-majority. If pro-independence supporters split their votes it can actually lead to the loss of seats. To guarantee the strongest pro-independence representation it has to be #BothVotesSNP
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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