POLITICAL commentators have a habit of explaining changes in public opinion in terms of single events. In 2011, the SNP pulled ahead in the polls after Scottish Labour’s leader, Iain Gray, embarrassingly retreated into a Subway sandwich shop when confronted by protestors in central Glasgow.
Many at the time pinned the shift on the Subway incident. But while it surely didn’t help Gray’s case, post-election research showed that voters’ broader attitudes and priorities shaped the outcome, rather than any moments during the campaign.
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ComRes’s monthly polling shows that, since January, the SNP’s constituency voting intention (including undecideds) has fallen from 49% to 43%, while Conservative support has grown from 17% to 20%. It might seem odd to frame this negatively, but given this represents the difference between an SNP majority and a hung Parliament, with the associated political consequences for a second independence referendum, this tightening could be crucial.
The appearances of the First Minister and her predecessor before the Harassment Complaints Committee were high profile moments of political drama which have pierced the public consciousness. So, it would be natural to conclude that, much more so than Iain Gray (below) being chased into Subway, these events explain recent shifts in polling.
But post-hearing polls came with relatively good news for the First Minister – YouGov found that a plurality of Scots (44%, +14 since January) believe she has generally told the truth, including 71% of her own party’s voters. Survation found that only a third of Scots believe she should resign, and even fewer (29%) are less likely to vote for her party due to the inquiry, both heavily driven by existing Conservative and No voters.
The inquiry may have cost the SNP a little support, but it has not substantially tarnished either the First Minister or her party’s reputation with most voters, and it certainly doesn’t explain the tightening of the polls since January. So, what can?
The movement of 2019 Labour voters towards supporting Yes and the SNP was a key trend in 2020. At peak SNP support in October, Ipsos MORI found that 39% of 2019 Labour voters would give SNP their constituency vote. In the past few months, ComRes have shown that figure gradually declining to just 11%. In the same period, while the First Minister’s favourable rating among the public generally has remained steady, her net favourability among 2019 Labour voters has fallen from +15 to +4.
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Simultaneously, the Conservative vote has begun to solidify. In January, ComRes found that just 68% of 2019 Conservative voters intended to give Douglas Ross’ party their constituency vote, with 10% undecided and 7% looking to vote SNP. Now, 77% say they’ll vote Conservative, just 5% are undecided, and a mere 1% would vote SNP.
And according to YouGov, since November Scottish Conservative voters’ net satisfaction with Boris Johnson has grown from +21 to +46.
The solidification of the Conservative vote in Scotland follows a UK-wide trend. Since January, YouGov’s Westminster voting intention tracker has flipped from showing a 4% Labour lead to a 13% Conservative lead.
This “vaccine bounce” for the Conservatives is reflected across Scottish polling. YouGov found that while the proportion of Scots who say that Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government are handling the pandemic well remains stable (on 68% and 67% respectively), Boris Johnson (25%, +6) and the UK Government (30%, +9) have enjoyed a boost since November.
The proportion of Scots who believe that Scotland would have responded better if it was an independent country has declined to 38% (-5), while the number who believe it would have fared worse has grown to 25% (+9). And compared to the previous unlocking in 2020, more Scots feel the country is easing restrictions too slowly (27%, +15) and fewer that it is moving at the right pace (49%, -16).
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To win a majority and a forceful political mandate to hold a second referendum – with or without Westminster consent – the SNP needs to win over those who voted for other parties in past elections. In 2020, they looked set to do so on the back of favourable comparisons between how Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson have handled the pandemic. Fewer such Scots are now making that comparison and they feel less compelled to give their vote in May as a vote of confidence in the First Minister and her party.
The SNP now faces a challenge to reinforce the contrast between a competent and self-assured First Minister and SNP government, and an incompetent and indecisive Westminster Government led by Boris Johnson.
Forget the Salmond inquiry and SNP divisions, if the Conservative’s “vaccine bounce” lasts until May, an SNP majority simply will not happen.
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