BORIS Johnson is to reiterate his government’s position on Scottish independence this weekend, insisting they will not grant a Section 30 order for a new referendum even if the SNP win a majority in May.
The Prime Minister is due to address the Scottish Tory Party conference on Sunday, where he will argue that holding a referendum during the pandemic would be reckless.
The message follows chaos in the UK Government’s approach to support for independence in Scotland. The troubled Union Unit lost two bosses in quick succession before it was decided it would not play a leading role in coming up with pro-UK strategy.
Instead, there is now a specific Cabinet group made up of the Prime Minister, Michael Gove, Rishi Sunak, Alister Jack (above) and the secretaries of state for Northern Ireland and Wales. Unelected David Frost, Johnson’s former chief Brexit negotiator, also has a seat at the table.
A new report in The Telegraph, coming after a couple of recent polls showed support for ending the Union has dipped, sees ministers insist they won’t be granting indyref2 any time soon.
What’s the strategy?
It is understood the current, short-term plan revolves around arguing now isn’t the time for another referendum given the ongoing public health crisis. Senior Tories want the electorate to know they would not grant a Section 30 order even in the event of an SNP majority.
Most polls show the SNP winning a majority in May – if the party achieves this they say they’ll hold a legal referendum in the early part of the next parliament.
In January, the Scottish Government’s Constitution Secretary unveiled an 11-point plan to get to independence even if Westminster says no.
READ MORE: IN FULL: This is the SNP’s plan for how to hold an independence referendum
The plan says the UK Government denying a new vote would not be a sustainable approach in the UK or internationally – but if it does, and there has been unambiguous support from the electorate for a new referendum, Westminster has two choices. These are to agree Holyrood already has the necessary power to hold a referendum, agree a Section 30 order or take legal action to dispute the legality of a vote. Alister Jack said this week that Johnson’s government would indeed challenge a referendum, held with no Section 30 order, in the courts.
Aside from the strategy to block an actual referendum, the party wants to put out longer term messaging on the lack of “clarity” from the SNP on what independence means for the border, pensions and a future currency.
Do they have any other ideas?
Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg is keen to see the House of Commons sit in the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish parliaments for a fortnight every year.
MPs would gather in Holyrood, the Senedd or Stormont with the location changing each year. This would happen in September, when the Commons returns after summer recess.
A source said this idea would “bring Parliament closer to the people”. There are concerns over the costs of such arrangements, and House Speaker Lindsay Hoyle is not convinced by the idea.
On a practical level there are also 650 MPs – the devolved parliaments would struggle to accommodate for that many people.
The devolved administrations’ consent would be required to set up the system, which seems unlikely given the struggling relationships on show currently.
Will there be a Better Together 2.0?
There has been much speculation over who the leading figures in a future referendum campaign would be – but it seems Westminster doesn’t want to set up a Better Together 2.0 for fear it would suggest a new vote is on its way.
Ministers believe pro-UK bodies like These Islands, Scotland Can and Scotland in Union can lead in this area, with more groups reportedly due to be set up in the summer.
Regardless, in the future it seems Johnson would not be the central figure in an anti-independence campaign. He is seen as “toxic” by many in Scotland.
One Scottish Labour figure said: “If you were in an SNP laboratory designing a perfect opponent you would come up with something like Johnson.”
What else can we expect?
Ministers obviously believe money talks, and are gearing up for a billion-pound spending drive in Scotland.
There is also talk of creating a “trade and investment hub” in Edinburgh to employ 60 staff in the next few years. The International Trade Secretary would like to announce new trade deals from the location to push the idea the UK is delivering investment to Scotland.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “The fact that the Prime Minister and his Tory colleagues are clearly spending so much time discussing how they can combat support for independence shows they are preparing for a referendum they know is inevitable in the face of a Holyrood majority for one.
“Bluntly, they wouldn’t be spending so much time on the issue if they thought their Trump-like bid to defy democracy could hold.
"Having already taken powers and funding from the Scottish Parliament, the Tories have confirmed that they now want to take over the Parliament building as well, despite the fact MSPs will be sitting there – nothing could better illustrate Tory arrogance and ignorance of Scotland.”
He added: “This election comes down to a choice – who should decide the country’s future. Should it be the people of Scotland or Boris Johnson?"
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