A LEADING polling expert has said that recent survey results suggest it is now not a question if the SNP will win in May, but if they will get a majority.

Professor Sir John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council, was talking to the BBC's Good Morning Scotland about recent polling that suggested a dip in support for the SNP and Scottish independence.

Curtice said that this dip in support has been a trend that has been visible since the middle of January and that it is "much more difficult to tell" whether First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her predecessor Alex Salmond appearing before the Holyrood inquiry had anything to do with it.

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On the question of whether the SNP will win a majority in the Scottish Parliament in the upcoming elections in May, Curtice said: "Even the opposition parties are really acknowledging, we're not talking about in this election whether the SNP win or not, we're talking about whether the SNP win well enough, by which we mean, are they going to get an overall majority.

"If they get an overall majority, they will then be able to argue that they've passed the same hurdle that they passed in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election and on that occasion David Cameron then agreed that there should be a referendum."

That election was led by Salmond and the SNP won 69 of the 129 seats at Holyrood.

A recent Panelbase poll, published yesterday in the Sunday Times, suggested that the SNP are predicted to win 65 seats in the upcoming election, which would give them a majority of one seat.

Curtice added that the SNP forming a minority government will make the case for a referendum "much more difficult to pursue".

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However, Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie has said that in the event of an SNP minority administration his party was open to forming a coalition government, which would make it an all independence-supporting administration.

Recent polling has suggested that the Greens are likely to make gains on their current five MSPs with one saying they could reach 11 seats in the upcoming vote.

Curtice said that the SNP "have an awful lot to fight for in the next eight weeks" as - while core supporters are still with them - those voters who are not as strongly connected to the independence movement, are the ones they need to convince.

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He said: "They need to be able to reconnect with that softer support and if they're going to do that, perhaps it's time to stop internal arguments."

 

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While the SNP's recent internal disagreements have ultimately led to calls for votes of no confidence in Sturgeon and Deputy First Minister John Swinney - with the Scottish Tories suggesting a vote on the latter will come this week - Curtice said this could be an own-goal if they are unsuccessful.

He added: "There's a danger for the opposition that they lose credibility by putting forward threats that then don't seem reasonable. 

"The honest answer is that this is a story that is probably going to run for the next three weeks - until Parliament rises - by that point, the inquiry will have to have reported.

"It's clearly in the interest of the Conservatives to keep this story in the headlines because certainly, that helps to bolster their supporters."