JUNTS per Catalunya, the party of exiled Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, have maintained pole position against the Socialists (PSC) and their pro-independence colleagues in the Republican Left (ERC), as Catalonia prepares to vote on Sunday, according to the latest poll.
It shows that Junts would win 33-34 seats and 20.5% of the vote, followed by the pro-union PSC with 28-30 seats in the new Parliament and 19.7% of the vote. ERC is predicted to come third with 29 seats and 18.8%.
These are the results of the survey carried out by Feedback for The National. Today’s poll is based on telephone tracking of 1000 respondents, updated daily since Tuesday. Tomorrow, the “day of reflection”, there will be two updates of the survey, early afternoon and evening.
Compared to Thursday’s results, Junts would lose one MP although its percentage of vote is improving. PSC would fall back slightly, while ERC would move forward.
The final results, however, remain uncertain, with the prediction for undecided voters more than 30%, although the estimated turnout has risen slightly today, to 58.4%.
As for the other parties, the Spanish Cs, the most popular in the 2017 election, would now be in fourth place with 13 seats and 9.5% of the vote; En Comú Podem, the alternative left, would get 10-11 seats and 7.9%; CUP, anti-capitalists and pro-indy, falls backs slightly from previous days, with 8-9 seats and 6.3% of the vote.
However, the far right Vox has improved, breaking into the Catalan Parliament with 6-8 seats and 5.7% of the vote. PP, the pro-union conservatives, improve a little, although they stay at the bottom of the table with 5 seats, 4.6% of the vote. PDeCAT, pro-independence liberals, heirs of the old Convergència party, rise in the poll to 2.5% of the vote, not enough to win any seats.
The pro-indy majority, comprising Junts, ERC – the two partners in the outgoing government – and the CUP would continue, with 70-72 deputies in the new Parliament, at least two seats more than the 68 needed for an absolute majority in the Catalan Chamber (135 seats).
Pro-independence parties (Junts, ERC, CUP, PDeCAT and Primaries) would reach 48.4% of the vote.
The mathematical possibility remains of a left-wing majority between PSC, ERC and En Comú (they total 67-70 seats), but all the pro-indy parties, including ERC, have ruled out any deal with the Socialists led by Salvador Illa, the candidate hand-picked by the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez.
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Junts manté la ‘pole’ davant PSC i ERC a dos dies del 14-F
Junts, el partit del president a l’exili, Carles Puigdemont, manté la pole position davant el PSC i ERC a dos dies de les eleccions catalanes. Junts, independentista, guanyaria amb 33-34 escons i un 20,56% dels vots; el PSC, que aspira a liderar el bloc unionista, seria la segona força amb un 19,74% entre 28-30 diputats al nou Parlament i ERC, tercera amb un 18,86% dels vots i 29 escons.
Així ho reflecteix un sondeig de Feedback per a The National tancat aquest divendres. L’enquesta es basa en un tracking telefònic que s’ha actualitzat cada dia des de dimarts passat. Demà dissabte, el dia de reflexió anterior a la jornada electoral, tindrà dues entregues, una cap al migdia i l’altra a la nit.
En relació al sondeig de dijous, Junts perdria un diputat tot i que millora el percentatge. El PSC recularia lleugerament i ERC avançaria. El resultat final, no obstant això, és molt incert. En ple tancament de la campanya electoral oficial, la previsió d’indecisos torna a situar-se per sobre del 30%, si bé la participació estimada puja lleugerament a un 58,47%.
Pel que fa a la resta de candidatures, la formació espanyolista C’s, que va guanyar els comicis del 2017, seria ara quarta força amb 13 diputats i un 9,59%, s’estanca en relació amb l’enquesta de dijous. En Comú Podem, l’esquerra alternativa, obtindria 10-11 escons i un 7,90% del vot. La CUP, anticapitalistes i independentistes, modera el seu ascens, amb 8-9 escons i un 6,30% del vot.
En canvi, millora l’extrema dreta de Vox, que irrompria a la Cambra catalana amb 6-8 escons i un 5,74% del vot. El PP millora, tot i que continua a la cua de la taula: consolidaria 5 diputats, amb un 4,66% del vot. El PDeCAT, independentistes hereus de l’antiga Convergència, puja en percentatge de vot estimat al sondeig, amb un 2,59% però no obtindria representació.
La majoria independentista, formada per Junts, ERC —els dos partits socis del govern sortint— i la CUP s’afermaria amb 70-72 diputats al nou Parlament; pel cap baix, dos més dels necessaris (68) per a assolir la majoria absoluta de la Cambra catalana (135 escons en total). La suma del percentatge de vot dels partits independentistes (Junts, ERC, CUP, PDeCAT i Primàries) assoliria el 48,49%.
Teòricament també seria possible una majoria d’esquerres formada pel PSC, ERC i En Comú podem (67-70 escons), però tots els partits independentistes, inclòs ERC han descartat pactar amb els socialistes que lidera Salvador Illa, el candidat del president del govern espanyol, Pedro Sánchez.
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