POLLING remains tight in Catalonia with the two main pro-independence parties – Junts (Together) and Esquerra Republicana (ERC) – virtually neck and neck in the latest survey.
Junts, led by former president Carles Puigdemont, is projected to win 31-34 seats (34 in 2017) with 19.83% of the vote.
ERC, whose leader is the imprisoned vice-president, Oriol Junqueras, would be second with 29-32 seats and 19.67% of the vote. Compared to yesterday’s poll Junts is marginally down and ERC has recovered slightly.
These results come from a feedback survey for The National based on telephone tracking. This newspaper will offer a new set of results every day this week, ahead of Sunday’s election.
The third-ranked political force would be the pro-union Socialist Party (PSC), led by the former Spanish health minister, Salvador Illa, which has lost ground on the earlier survey but shows huge growth since the last election.
PSC is forecast to get 29-30 seats and 19.20% of the vote (in 2017 it won 17 seats).
According to the survey, fourth place would go to the pro-union right-wing Ciudadanos (Citizens) party.
They would win 13-14 deputies (MPs) and 9.77% of the vote, a very slight improvement on the forecast from yesterday’s poll.
They won the 2017 election with 36 seats, although they were unable to agree with any unionist party to form a parliamentary majority. This time they are in free fall. Peculiarly, their voters are being targeted by the socialists of the PSC and the far-right Vox.
CUP, the anti-capitalist and pro-indy group, have moderated their spectacular rise, with 9-11 seats (4 in 2017) and 7.51% of the vote.
En Comú Podem, the alternative left, are at a standstill with 8-9 seats and 7.22% of the vote (in 2017 it won eight seats).
The poll indicated the far-right Vox would burst into the Catalan Parliament for the first time with 6-7 seats and 5.52% of the vote.
The Popular Party, the main opposition in the Spanish Parliament, remains at the tail end with 3-5 seats and 4.01% of the vote (4 seats in 2017).
These results would ensure that the current pro-indy majority in the Catalan Parliament is maintained, with Junts, ERC and CUP taking 69-77 seats, from one to nine seats above a majority in the house. The pro-union parties, now led by the socialists, would not have enough support to form a majority.
However, the uncertainty about the election result, marked both by the three-way draw between Junts-ERC-PSC, and the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, is very high, with undecided voters numbering one in three (30.2%) and turnout low at 58.61%.
READ MORE: Junts per Catalunya takes slight lead over rivals ERC and PSC five days ahead of the election
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Dura lluita en la capçalera de la cursa electoral catalana entre les dues principals forces independentistes.
Junts, el partit del president a l’exili, Carles Puigdemont, guanyaria les eleccions del 14-F amb 31-34 diputats, 3 menys o els mateixos que el 2017, amb un 19,83% dels vots. ERC, la formació del vicepresident empresonat, Oriol Junqueras, seria segona amb un 19,67% dels vots i 29-32 diputats i manté, per tant, opcions d’empatar o guanyar.
Aquest és el resultat d’un sondeig de Feedback per a The National tancat aquest dimecres, a quatre dies de la celebració dels comicis al Parlament de Catalunya. L’enquesta es basa en un tracking telefònic que s’actualitzarà cada dia fins al divendres. Dissabte, el dia de reflexió anterior a la jornada electoral, tindrà dues entregues. La primera entrega del sondeig es va publicar dimarts.
En relació amb l’anterior enquesta, Junts recula una mica i els republicans es recuperen lleugerament. La tercera força seria el PSC, liderat per l’exministre de Sanitat del govern espanyol, Salvador Illa, que perd posicions respecte a l’anterior sondeig, amb 29-30 diputats i un 19,20% dels vots. El 2017, els socialistes van obtenir 17 diputats.
La quarta força serien els unionistes de Ciutadans, que van ser primers el 2017 tot i que no van sumar majoria per govern: ara, en caiguda lliure, obtindrien 13-14 diputats i un 9,77%, una molt discreta millora sobre la previsió de l’anterior sondeig. El seu electorat s’el disputen el PSC i al ultradreta de Vox. Els anticapitalistes i independentistes de la CUP moderen la seva espectacular pujada, amb 9-11 diputats (en van treure 4 el 2017) i un 7,51% dels vots.
En Comú Podem, força de l’esquerra alternativa, s’estanca en la seva evolució al sondeig, amb 8-9 escons i un 7,22% (el 2017 en va obtenir 8). La ultradreta de Vox s’asseguraria la seva irrupció al Parlament català per primera vegada amb 6-7 diputats i un 5,52%. El PP, primer partit de l’oposició al Parlament espanyol, continua a la cua amb 3-5 escons i un 4,01% (va treure 4 el 2017).
Amb aquests resultats es mantindria l’actual majoria independentista al Parlament. El sondeig assigna a Junts, ERC i la CUP 69-77 escons, la qual cosa suposa, per la banda baixa, 1 per sobre de la majoria absoluta (68). L’unionisme, ara liderat pel socialista Illa, no tindria prou suports per configurar una majoria.
De tota manera, la incertesa sobre el resultat electoral, marcat tant pel tripe empat Junts, ERC, PSC com pels efectes de la pandèmia de coronavirus és molt elevada. La previsió d’electors indecisos continua sent d’1 de cada 3 (30,2%) i la participació, baixa, d’un 58,61%.
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