Junts per Catalunya, the party of the exiled Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, has a slight advantage over Esquerra Republicana Catalunya (ERC), its rival in the independence camp, and the Partit dels Socialistes (PSC), the leading unionist party, five days ahead of the Catalan election.
The pro-independence parties (Junts, ERC, and the CUP) improve their hopes, as the unionist parties, led by socialist candidate Salvador Illa, will not be able to form a majority, just as happened in the 2017 election with another party, Ciudadanos.
These are the results of a Feedback survey for The National based on telephone tracking. This newspaper will offer a new set of results every day this week, with two being published on Saturday, the "day of reflection".
The sample is 1000 interviews in total. The data collection for these first results ended at 4pm this Tuesday.
At the head of the race there is again a three-way draw, but Junts would be the leading force with 32-35 seats (in 2017, 34) and 20.37% of the vote. Junts’ list has Puigdemont as number 1 and Laura Borràs as the effective candidate for the presidency.
ERC, the party of Vice President and political prisoner Oriol Junqueras, is led by Pere Aragonès, current Vice President of the Catalan Government. According to our survey, ERC would be the second force with 30-32 seats (won 32 in previous elections) and 19.78 % of votes.
PSC would be the third party, going from the 17 seats it won in 2017 to 28-30 seats and 19.34% of the vote. Its leader, Salvador Illa, left the Ministry of Health during the pandemic to be the candidate in a decision taken by Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, who saw a chance to evict the pro-independence parties from the Catalan Government.
The socialist gains will come mainly from the debacle of the fiercely pro-unionist right-wing Ciudadanos, who were the most voted party in 2017 but failed to gather the support to form a government.
The poll predicts that they will fall from 36 to 13 seats and 9.82% of the vote. The CUP, a pro-independence and anti-capitalist party, would rise from 4 to 10-11 seats and 7.75% of the vote. En Comú Podem, the alternative left party, will get the same results as 2017 with a slight tendency to improve, going from 8 to 8-9 seats and 7.21% of the vote.
For the first time, a hard-right pro-unionist force, Vox, would enter the Catalan Parliament with 5-6 seats. The right-wing pro-unionist Popular Party risks getting ousted from the chamber. The PP is in a downward trend and the survey estimates a result of 3 seats (4 in 2017) and 3.57% of the vote.
PDeCat, a pro-independence liberal party set up by some of the figures from the old Convergencia Democràtica, would not get representation, with 1.78% of the vote.
According to this data, the pro-independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) would expand their current majority, from 70 to 72-78 seats. The pro-unionist groups (PSC, Cs, Vox and PP) would get between 49 and 52, far from the 68 needed to obtain an absolute majority.
The Parliament of Catalonia has 135 seats. The results from this survey allow the repetition of the current majority of the pro-independence parties Junts-ERC, with the support of the CUP, or a left-wing coalition PSC-ERC-Comuns, though Esquerra Republicana have ruled this out.
However, uncertainty is high, both for the expected three-way draw between Junts-ERC-PSC, and for the effects on the polls of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the survey, turnout will fall from the historic 79.09% on December 2017 (an election called by the government of Madrid after suspending Catalan self-government following the botched declaration of independence) to only 59.14% . The Feedback poll predicts 29.8% of voters still undecided.
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Eleccions Catalunya 14-F
Junts agafa un lleuger avantatge sobre ERC i PSC a cinc dies del 14-F
Lleuger aventatge de Junts per Catalunya, el partit del president català a l’exili, Carles Puigdemont, sobre ERC i el PSC a cinc dies de les eleccions catalanes. L’independentisme, amb JxCat, els republicans i la CUP es reforçaria. L’unionisme, amb el candidat socialista Salvador Illa al capdavant, no podria formar majoria, com ja va passar a les eleccions del 2017 amb Ciutadans.
Aquest és el resultat d’un sondeig de Feedback per a The National a cinc dies de la celebració de les eleccions. L’enquesta, basada en un tracking telefònic, s’anirà actualitzant cada dia fins al divendres; i dissabte, el dia de reflexió anterior a la jornada electoral, tindrà dues entregues.
D’acord amb el sondeig, es manté el triple empat en la capçalera de la cursa electoral però Junts seria primera força amb 32-35 escons (el 2017, 34) i un 20,37% dels vots. La llista de Junts té a Puigdemont com a número 1 i a Laura Borràs com a candidata efectiva a la presidència.
Esquerra Republicana (ERC), el partit del vicepresident i pres polític Oriol Junqueras i que presenta com a candidat Pere Aragonès, actual vicepresident del Govern, seria segona força amb 30-32 escons (va obtenir 32 als anterios comicis) i un 19,78% dels vots.
El Partit Socialista (PSC), que aminora el seu creixement a les enquestes, seria tercera força, passant dels 17 diputats que va obtenir el 2017 a 28-30 i un 19,34% dels vots. El seu candidat, Salvador Illa, va deixar el ministeri de Sanitat, en plena pandèmia de coronavirus per ser candidat a Catalunya per decisió del president del govern espanyol, Pedro Sánchez, que veu possible desallotjar els independentistes del Govern català.
La formació espanyolista Ciutadans, que va guanyar les eleccions anteriors però sense prou suports per formar una majoria de govern, passaria de 36 a 13 diputats i un 9,82% dels vots. La CUP, independentista i anticapitalista, pujaria de 4 a 10-11 i un 7,75% dels vots. En Comú Podem, esquerra alternativa, es quedaria igual amb tendència a millorar, passant de 8 a 8-9 escons i un 7,21%.
Per primera vegada entraria al Parlament català una força d’ultradreta, Vox, amb 5-6 diputats. El PP seria l’últim de ola llistan i amb tendència a la baixa, de 4 a 3 diputats i un 3,57% dels vots. El PDeCat, partit independentista hereu de l’antiga Convergència, no aconseguiria representació, amb un 1,78% dels vots.
Segons aquestes dades, el bloc independentista (Junts, ERC i CUP) ampliaria la seva actual majoria, de 70 a 72-78 escons. Els unionistes (PSC, Cs, Vox i PP) obtindrien entre 49 i 52, molt lluny dels 68 necessaris per obtenir la majoria absoluta. El Parlament de Catalunya té 135 escons. En tot cas, seria possible repetir l’actual majoria de govern independentista Junts-ERC, amb suport de la CUP o, per la banda alta de la forquilla d’atribució d’escons, un pacte d’esquerres PSC-ERC-Comuns (66-71), si bé, els republicans l’han descartat.
Això no obstant, la incertesa sobre el resultat electoral és màxima, tant pel triple empat entre Junts, ERC i PSC que es preveu, com pels efectes de la pandèmia de coronarvius. Segons el sondeig, la participació baixarà de l’històric 79,09% de les eleccions del 21-D del 2017, convocades pel govern de Madrid després de suspendre l’autonomia arran de la declaració d’independència a només un 59,14%. A la vegada, el sondeig de Feedback preveu un 29,8% d’indecisos.
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