IN his most memorable political address, Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price told an audience in Aberystwyth that Wales was a “post-colonial country still waiting to be decolonised”.

Even in 2009, such sentiment was not radically new for Welsh nationalists. Plaid’s first MP and intellectual father, Gwynfor Evans, had lamented in similar terms in the pages of his A National Future for Wales how internal colonialism continued to plague the Welsh people.

For Evans, Britain was a phantom nation – a descriptor for an English state writ large plus its colonies – and when it would collapse “everything British” would go with it. This narrative of Welsh history has by no means exited the intellectual wings of Welsh nationalism. There has been some recognition and adaptation on the concept of what Britain represents, as well as how such flagrant language is not appropriate today, but nationalists still have a tendency to put more energy into these intellectual battles rather than into gaining ground electorally.

Price’s description of his own lecture is an apt phrase to summarise the priorities of the movement – “two-thirds history, and one-third psychology” – which has in part contributed to Plaid’s struggle to mirror in Cardiff Bay and at Westminster the electoral successes of the SNP.

The direction of the political wind has changed in recent years, of course. The onset of Brexit and Covid present unique opportunities to harness a wave of disenchantment with Westminster and the political settlement that the UK brings. The union, as The Sunday Times’ polling shows, is on shaky ground. While the possibility of Scottish independence and Irish reunification are well into the mainstream, nationalism is brewing in gallant little Wales too; something that has surprised London-based politicians and commentators alike.

The movement is no longer confined to rural, Welsh-speaking areas, nor indeed the cultural and intellectual classes that for so long shaped debates in Plaid Cymru. It is in the political mainstream, championed by the grassroots movement YesCymru, which has increased its membership by 15,000 over the last 12 months.

The irony is that the central catalyst for the growing calls for independence has been the success of the Welsh Labour Government compared to Downing Street in handling the pandemic. But there is a long way to go for those dreamers in the Welsh nationalist movement.

Although a recent poll was seized upon as an indicator of how the idea of independence was taking off in Wales, support for the Union and indeed the sense of Britishness were both dominant in The Sunday Times’s research.

Only England is more pro-Union than Wales and a majority of the Welsh think we would be poorer as an independent nation. There is also overwhelming opposition to holding a referendum in the next five years. This makes Plaid Cymru’s pledge to hold a referendum in its first term in government all the more baffling.

In spite of the party’s helpful Independence Commission, the only document to credibly set out the possibilities of an independent Wales, there is little clarity of what a new Wales would look like in terms of its economy, the health and welfare service, and indeed matters of citizenship.

The debate has started here but it is a long way away from being in the forefront of the minds of the general public. Although work has been done by Plaid Cymru, there is also growing activity from Welsh Labour figures who realise a radical reform of the UK is needed for it to have a chance of survival.

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INDEED, the differences between a future model of British confederalism (as championed by many nationalists) and a new model of federalism to preserve the UK would not appear so different on the surface to many people.

In that sense, Welsh Labour, the most likely party to be in a position to deliver change politically, may shift what direction we go in and what “union” we embrace in the future.

So the biggest issue facing Wales is one of planning and timing. What will happen here depends very much on events in Scotland and Northern Ireland, but leaving the independence debate out of the picture ahead of then would leave us on the backfoot.

It is not totally out of the question, as asserted by the broadcaster Gavin Esler, that a United Kingdom of Wales and England might emerge should the UK capitulate. Avoiding such a scenario requires an articulate and realistic vision of the future of Wales – something that should not be left to the non-partisan YesCymru or the ranks of Plaid Cymru. It is something for all progressive politicians in Wales to embrace and formulate in the years ahead.

Gwynfor Evans wrote in 1975 that the moment was fast approaching when Scotland and Wales would achieve full national status. More than 45 years later, it is almost certain that Scotland will achieve it this decade. There have been well-established debates on fiscal policy, the European question and now the route to a referendum. Nicola Sturgeon is both in government and leader of the nationalist cause. A clear leader. Any disputes over the legality over a referendum would likely at this stage benefit her and her party, too. It is almost unstoppable.

In Wales, we are far behind – both in terms of engagement with the issue of independence as well as the leaders to take the movement forward before and beyond May’s elections. So while the question of independence may be taking off in our nation, there is a necessary long road of planning, organisation and leadership that is needed before it reaches ballot paper.

Only then will nationalists have a realistic chance of achieving national serenity once more.

Theo Davies-Lewis is one of Wales’s leading political commentators and a regular broadcaster and writer for Welsh and UK media