THE right to self-determination and wanting a government that acts in the interest of the Scottish people are “powerful drivers of independence” according to a new academic report entitled Brexit and Beyond.

Produced by the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, the report contains the views of 45 leading international academics on a myriad of Brexit-related subjects including the future of the Union.

In her essay, Professor Nicola McEwen, senior research fellow at the UK in a Changing Europe, writes: “The right to self-determination, and to empower a government to act according to the interests and preferences of the people of Scotland, are powerful drivers of independence claims. All else may turn out to be embellishment and detail.

Professor McEwen states: “Every opinion poll suggests that it [the SNP] is on course for another convincing victory in the Scottish Parliament elections in May, potentially winning an overall majority."

“This would be a remarkable achievement in a five-party system, under an electoral system not expected to produce single party majorities.

“Five months is a long time in politics, and much can intervene to alter the course of public opinion.

“Internally, the party is struggling to contain factionalism. But the SNP has the advantage of facing a divided opposition with no prospect of mounting a serious challenge, individually or collectively.

“Moreover, the constitutional cleavage pervades both political debate and political behaviour in Scotland. And while the SNP is not the only pro-independence party – the Scottish Green Party also favours independence – it can stake a claim that its electoral fortunes alone will reinforce the mandate for an independence referendum.”

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Leading poll expert Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University writes: “There is perhaps one reason above all why Brexit is unlikely to disappear from Britain’s political agenda. The decision to leave the EU has helped fuel an increase in support for independence in Scotland, where, in contrast to the rest of the UK, voters backed Remain in 2016 by 62% to 38%.”

He adds: “A Scottish Parliament election will be held in May 2021 at which the SNP will be seeking support for holding another independence referendum.

“Should they win a parliamentary majority, a whole new chapter may well be added to Britain’s Brexit story.”

In his introduction to Brexit and Beyond, Anand Menon, professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London and director of the UK in a Changing Europe says that Brexit’s “implications for the Union have already been significant, so tied up were the devolution settlements with the UK’s status as an EU member state”.

He adds: “And those implications look set to continue to play out, not least via crucial elections in Scotland, this year.”

Michael Kenny and Jack Sheldon of Cambridge University write: “For the first time since devolution was introduced, British politicians are going to have to engage with its complex realities and the wider challenge of articulating a vision of the nature and purpose of the UK’s asymmetrical system of governance.

“Significant differences about the merits of devolution, the right of the Scottish Parliament to demand another independence referendum and the case for decentralising power in England currently lie just under the surface of British politics. They will be immensely disruptive when they come to the fore.

“Debates about Scottish independence will have profound effects on other parts of the UK – very likely instigating a much wider conversation about whether the Union can only survive if further reforms are undertaken. Britain’s political and administrative elites can be expected to become increasingly inward looking as the implications of the possible dissolution of the UK dawn. A fracturing of the domestic union as it departs the EU is a significant obstacle to the idea of a confident and outward-facing global Britain.”