PRO-independence and anti-devolution voices are both on the rise in Wales as Brexit and Covid create a “hardening of attitudes”, a leading political scientist says.
According to Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University, says EU withdrawal, the pandemic and the “stagnancy” of Labour administrations in the Senedd are combining to shift opinion about the country’s constitutional position.
Labour has never failed to get into administration in Wales during 20 years of devolution, sometimes in coalition with other parties.
This week polling by YouGov/ITV found a dip in Labour support for the Senedd as Plaid Cymru backing rises. Adam Price’s party also recorded its highest level of support for Westminster since the turn of the century.
READ MORE: Threat to Welsh Labour as Yes Cymru urges votes for pro-independence parties
Price has promised to hold an independence referendum if his party forms a government at May’s election. Meanwhile, support for the Abolish the Assembly party remains at 7% and it’s emerged that several Welsh Conservative candidates would also scrap the Senedd.
Awan-Scully, who runs the Welsh Political Barometer with ITV Cymru-Wales and YouGov, told the Sunday National: “Devolution is coming under pressure from both ends of the spectrum.”
Leading pro-independence group Yes Cymru has seen its membership climb from around 2000 to more than 17,000 in the course of a year – making it bigger than any Welsh political party aside from Labour.
Awan-Scully says that while First Minister Mark Drakeford has won widespread support for his handling of coronavirus, his party has damaged its fortunes with “five years of punching itself in the face in public” in rows revolving around ex-leader Jeremy Corbyn.
And with Brexit complete, there is “increasing vocalisation of an anti-devolution attitude” from both former Ukip figures and members of the Welsh Tories – for whom opposition to devolution is becoming “more mainstream”, Awan-Scully says.
He commented: “The Conservatives are clearly calculating. It’s a mixture of doing what some of them would quite like to do and electoral advantage. They leaked votes to Ukip in 2016 and they want to guard against that.
“Until Plaid get themselves sorted out and build a party as electorally successful as the SNP, there won’t be that same move towards independence.
“Labour is polling at about the same level as 2016, which wasn’t such a great election for them. I would be surprised if they win an outright majority but I’d be surprised if anyone but Labour got the biggest vote share.”
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