WE are all being urged to stay safe and stay home during the Covid crisis, but what happens when we want to move house?
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s new regulations introduced yesterday still allow for people to move house and for estate agents to enable them to do so – and they are yielding the benefits.
Scottish Property Centre director Craig Smith said: “In terms of our industry I think we have been quite lucky in that we’ve effectively still been able to keep operating.
“We’ve been going since the end of June when we were allowed to operate again. And I think it’s well publicised that we’ve had a bit of a mini-boom right into the middle of November.
“There was that much demand, people’s circumstances changing, people’s priorities changing, all these new reasons for people looking to move, so it was one of the busiest periods we’ve had for about 15 years.
“It started off very slowly this year but this week we’re already seeing a big difference. I think that was because of the new lockdown coming in and people waiting to see how that was going to impact things.”
The property market insists the key to its enduring ability to operate is that viewings have kept going.
Smith added: “We’re still keeping busy right across the board, from a wee one-bedroom flat to your family markets.
“It’s skeleton staff we have in branch. There’s just three of us in here at the moment, the rest still working remotely from home.
“The key is being seen to be open and keeping that message out there and, more importantly, what would kill the market, if we had to stop viewings.”
Smith put the end of last year’s bounce down to a number of factors. He said: “It probably came from the lending more than anything else. I think that lenders tightened up on the 95% mortgages and then the 90% mortgages.
“There were lots of buyers out there, particularly first-time buyers. And then at the same time the Scottish Government fund for first-time buyers was pulled and that’s not coming back out until April now and that killed the first-time buyers market at the time.”
The property sector appreciates that this past year has been kinder to it than the broader economy and is hoping that it can continue in the same vein.
Smith added: “I think that everybody anticipated in March that we were going to have a big problem with the market, but if anything it has just kept increasing. I would anticipate that for this year we may be back to a small increase.
“I think if the market were to grind to a halt then we could go back to the scenario where we have another mini-boom for a two, three, four-month period where those people who were sitting waiting with the pause button on were allowed to go out and buy again.”
That cautious optimism is shared by Savills.
Faisal Choudhry, head of residential research, said: “The economic backdrop remains challenging and indicators such as unemployment are expected to peak during the middle of the year. So it’s likely to be a price-sensitive market in the short to medium-term.
“However, supply constraints will lift prices in particularly desirable hotspots, with good-quality and appropriately-priced properties continuing to receive competitive bids and interest from London buyers.”
The property market, like all across the economy, is waiting for a shot in the arm from falling numbers of Covid cases.
Choudhry added: “Confidence [boosted by a successful roll-out of the vaccine] is likely to be restored in the latter part of the year as more sustained economic growth gains a foothold. The expectation of a prolonged period of low interest rates supports the medium outlook for house price growth across Scotland.
“The underlying commitment to moving home will remain strong over the course of 2021 as further lockdown restrictions will provide an urgency to those searching for a lifestyle change and a better work-life balance.”
Between July and December 2020, the number of agreed sales in Scotland was 38% more than the number in 2019 over the same months, according to data provider TwentyCi.
Choudhry continued: “Despite the current lockdown, property sales are still taking place in January. The surge in activity last year is still feeding the official Registers of Scotland data. It will be February before we find out the full year 2020 transactional performance.
“House price growth in Scotland at the end of last year was 3.2% against our forecast of 3.8%. So the increase in sales hasn’t resulted in runaway price growth.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here