DURING the long and turbulent four-and-a-half years it took from the vote on leaving the EU for the “full Brexit” to happen, many pledges were made by the Tories over what it would achieve. Here we examine whether some of these key promises have been delivered.
The promise: £350 million a week for public services
One of the most prominent symbols of the Vote Leave campaign was a red bus emblazoned with claim that the UK sends the EU £350 million a week, with the slogan “Let’s fund our NHS instead”.
The year after the referendum Boris Johnson, then foreign secretary, revived the claim in a newspaper article stating: “Once we have settled our accounts, we will take back control of roughly £350m per week. It would be a fine thing, as many of us have pointed out, if a lot of that money went on the NHS.”
What we got: Concerns were raised about the £350m figure during the referendum and the UK Statistics Authority chair David Norgrove subsequently criticised Johnson for repeating it. He sent a letter to Johnson in 2017 saying it was a “clear misuse of official statistics”.
“This confuses gross and net contributions,” the letter said. “It also assumes that payments currently made to the UK by the EU, including for example for the support of agriculture and scientific research, will not be paid by the UK Government when we leave.”
The Sunday National last week asked the Treasury for information what additional money will be available to the UK as a direct result of leaving the EU on January 1 and how much of this money will be going to the NHS.
A Treasury spokeswoman said an “unprecedented” £280 billion package of support had been provided to help the country through the coronavirus pandemic,
She added: “We have taken back control of our money to spend on domestic priorities and levelling up the country, instead of paying vast sums of money into the EU Budget.”
The promise: Leaving the EU will ‘take back control’ of fishing
During the Brexit referendum campaign, Michael Gove said the collapse of his father’s fishing industry business – which he blamed party on the result of the Commons Fisheries Policy – was behind his “personal crusade” for Leave.
After the trade deal was struck with the EU last week, the UK Government stated the deal has delivered what was promised with Johnson saying “for the first time since 1973 we will be an independent coastal state with full control of our waters”.
What we got: Fishing proved one of the main sticking points during the trade deal negotiations – and continues to be contentious after agreement was reached.
Industry leaders have raised concerns that any “marginal” gains on the share of the fish the UK fleet can catch will be outweighed by the system of “quota swapping” coming to an end. An analysis by the Scottish Government has found there will not be increased fishing opportunities for eight key fish stocks under the Brexit deal.
Mike Park, Scottish White Fish Producers Association chief executive, said members were “deeply aggrieved” at the very challenging situation they now face for 2021.
Elspeth Macdonald, chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation, said the deal falls “very far short” of the commitments and promises made to the fishing industry.
The promise: The UK will continue to participate in Erasmus
The Erasmus student exchange programme was first established in 1987 and has grown to include other schemes such as vocational training, adult education, youth and sport.
In May 2018, then Scottish Tory deputy leader Jackson Carlaw told MSPs in the Scottish Parliament: “It is not acceptable to me if the outcome of our exit from the European Union is one in which we are no longer able to participate in the Erasmus programme.”
The Prime Minister also told MPs in January that there was “no threat to the Erasmus scheme and we will continue to participate in it”.
What we got: The UK has pulled out of the Erasmus programme, which Johnson said was for financial reasons.
It is being replaced by a worldwide scheme named after Bletchley Park code-breaker Alan Turing, which will cost £100m for 2021/22. However funding for subsequent academic years will be set out in future spending reviews.
The Scottish Government’s Universities Minister Richard Lochhead said the Turing alternative was a “watered down and less well funded version” of Erasmus.
The promise: No change to EU citizens rights
During the Vote Leave campaign, a pledge was made that there would be no change for EU citizens lawfully resident in the UK. A statement signed by Johnson, Gove and Priti Patel and Gisela Stuart said: “These EU citizens will automatically be granted indefinite leave to remain in the UK and will be treated no less favourably than they are at present.”
What we got: EU citizens who wish to continue living in the UK after June 30, 2021, have to apply to a settlement scheme. Latest statistics show up to the end of November, there were 4.48 million applications – including 225,500 from Scotland. Of the overall UK total, 55% have been given settled status – for those who have lived in the UK for a continuous five-year period – which means they can stay in the UK as long as they like.
Another 45% have been given pre-settled status, which means they must complete five years continuous residence in order to apply for settled status. The figures also show just under 2% of applications have been refused or declared invalid – adding up to 76,700.
Last month First Minister Nicola Sturgeon issued a call to EU citizens to apply to the scheme, saying: “While I don’t agree that you should have to go through an application process to secure rights that you should automatically have, I do want to ensure that you are able to stay in Scotland.”
The promise: An ‘oven-ready’ deal
Johnson made much of his infamous “oven-ready” Brexit deal before the last election. “We’ve got an oven-ready deal. We’ve just got to put it in at gas mark four, give it 20 minutes and Bob’s your uncle.” It followed his previous grand statement to “do or die” over leaving the EU by October 31 – a deadline which came and went.
What we got: The UK did leave the EU on January 30, 2020, but as the clock ticked down to the end of the transition period the promise of an oven-ready deal came repeatedly under fire. Conservative MPs have since dismissed suggestions it had been intended to apply to the trade deal element. In the end the deal was struck on Christmas Eve – averting a no-deal situation by days and leaving businesses with just days to prepare for new terms of trade which had been agreed including new processes at the border and new rules on importing and exporting goods.
The promise: The Union will be stronger
Before the Brexit referendum, Michael Gove predicted in an interview in May 2016 that the “majority of people in Scotland” would vote to leave.
He went on: “And I think when we vote to leave it will be clear that having voted to leave one union the last thing the people of Scotland will want to do is to break up another.
“If we vote to leave then I think the [United Kingdom] Union will be stronger.”
He also said that the SNP had “been checked”, adding: “Nicola Sturgeon is not mistress in her own house any more, she does not have a majority.”
What we got: Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, with 62% backing Remain versus 38% for Leave. And supporters of Scottish independence are glad to see Gove’s other promises have similarly crumbled. Experts have cited Brexit as one of the driving forces for an increase in support for leaving the UK during 2020, while the SNP is predicted to win a majority at this year’s Holyrood election.
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