Scottish independence: Ex SNP spin doctor says referendum won't happen in 2021

Kevin Pringle, who has worked in different roles for both Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, and is a board member of the grassroots' organisation Voices for Scotland, set out his views in a newspaper article today.

His column referred to the impact of Brexit and he argued that a trade deal between the UK and EU was ultimately better for the long term prospects of achieving independence than a No-Deal exit.

"It’s reasonable to believe that a No-Deal departure would have sparked a spasm of disgust across Scotland, with a consequent increase in poll ratings for independence.

"For a nation that voted much more decisively to remain in the EU than Britain as a whole opted to leave, the indignity of being dragged out in the most disorderly way of all would have offended many Scots who chose to stick with the Union in 2014 — and they would have felt just as strongly about it as confirmed 'yes' voters," he wrote.

"Nonetheless, I suspect that this may have been a relatively short-term reaction for some people. The implications of coping with the pandemonium and economic fall-out of No-Deal, while our attention continues to be focused on combating the coronavirus, may well have diminished appetites for a comprehensive debate on Scotland’s future anytime soon.

"In truth, what we have is a thin deal with the EU — outside the customs union and world’s biggest single market — and that will still work to the significant disadvantage of our trade, the wider economy and prosperity."

He added: "However, a deal of any kind is not just better than the No-Deal alternative from an immediate British business perspective; in the medium term, it is also the best outcome for proponents of an independent Scotland.

"And the reality is that indyref2 is a matter for the medium term — I believe within the period of the next Scottish Parliament — and not the very short-term of next year.

"For a start, the SNP and Scottish Government can criticise the details of the deal every bit as much as they would have attacked No-Deal, and accuse the UK Government of failing to protect key Scottish interests in the negotiations, such as agriculture and fishing.

READ MORE: Kevin Pringle: ‘Time for new party is after independence is achieved’

"More fundamentally, the very fact of a deal proves the point that highly complex matters of borders and customs arrangements are capable of resolution and mutual accord.

"Indeed, when it comes to the particular difficulties in relation to Northern Ireland, Gove has argued that the new arrangements represent 'the best of both worlds': alignment with the EU and at the same time unfettered access to the rest of the UK market. 'The best of both worlds' was of course a Better Together slogan from 2014. It would be ironic if it were invoked by the next 'Yes' campaign."

Pringle, who is also a former SNP head of communications, played a key role in the Yes campaign which increased support for independence from less than 30% to 45% by the referendum in September 2014.

Kevin Pringle believes a new independence referendum will be held in the medium term and not next year.

Some 17 successive polls this year have given a majority for independence, with two surveys putting support at a record 58%.

This has lead to some senior figures - including the former Yes campaign head Dennis Canavan - to urge the Scottish Government to "seize the day" and hold the referendum next year.

However, there remains differing views among senior SNP politicians about when it should take place.

The party's Westminster leader Ian Blackford in November told the Sunday National in mid-November: “That referendum will take place and we need to plan that that referendum must take place in 2021.”

READ MORE: SNP hit back at claim they are backing No Deal by voting against Brexit agreement 

But in Holyrood last week, the First Minister - who paused planning for a new vote at the outbreak of the pandemic - told MSPs said she was currently not planning for a new vote when asked about indyref2 plans by the Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie.

"I am sure that it has not escaped Willie Rennie’s notice that I am not planning an independence referendum right now. In fact, I put planning for an independence referendum on hold when the global pandemic struck. If only Boris Johnson had put planning for Brexit on hold when the global pandemic struck. I am not planning to have a referendum while we are in the midst of a global pandemic, because my focus is on leading the country through the pandemic."

READ MORE: Andrew Tickell: How Scots have learned to love independence in 2020

She added: "However, as we start to recover from the pandemic and as all of us across the world start to ask ourselves what kind of countries and societies we want to live in, I want the people of Scotland to be in charge of answering that question, not the likes of Boris Johnson. Becoming an independent country is essential to building the Scotland that we know is possible as we come out of this Covid crisis."

Ahead of the SNP conference last month, the First Minister said she wanted a new referendum in the early part of the next parliament.

Voices for Scotland was established in Spring last year after the First Minister unveiled plans for a second independence before May 2021.

Its focus was to target soft No voters – for instance, among EU nationals, older people and those living in the capital and in rural communities.

Pringle was senior special adviser to former First Minister Alex Salmond from 2007 to 2012 and then SNP communications director from 2012-15 , which included a period when Nicola Sturgeon was party leader.

He is a colleague of the SNP’s Growth Commission author Andrew Wilson at the consultancy Charlotte Street Partners and writes a regular weekly column for the Sunday Times where he made his comments on the timing of a new independence referendum today.

It is understood he remains on good terms with both the First Minister and her predecessor and would be well-placed to heal any divisions in the wider Yes movement in light of Alex Salmond’s trial.

Following Salmond’s acquittal in March, Pringle supported the former First Minister being allowed back into the SNP.

The SNP is on course to win a fourth term in government next Spring and believes that winning the election in May would give it a mandate to hold another referendum on independence.

However, the UK Government has repeatedly said it would not grant the consent that the First Minister has argued would be needed if any referendum was to be "beyond legal doubt".