BREXIT has made a “deep and possibly even a decisive impact” on the opinions of Scotland’s people towards independence, according to Scotland’s leading historian Professor Sir Tom Devine.

Writing in Seven Days in today’s Sunday National, Devine, who is the Sir William Fraser Professor Emeritus of Scottish History and Palaeography at the University of Edinburgh, also speaks of a “growing alienation” between Scotland and England.

He also gives his thoughts on the historical context of the coronavirus pandemic and considers the current generation is getting “off a great deal more lightly” compared to our ancestors who had to contend with the Black Death and Spanish Flu which killed tens of millions in the 14th and 20th centuries respectively.

According to Devine, the opinion polls on independence barely moved after the Brexit referendum in 2016 in which Scotland voted 62% in favour of Remain, a number that included himself.

READ MORE: Tom Devine's reflections on 2020: The coronavirus pandemic and Brexit

He writes: “It was only in late spring and early summer this year that the influence of Brexit really began to be noted by pollsters. Psephologists now suggest that the remarkable rise in the pro-independence vote during 2020 was largely due to the response to Brexit.

“After a slow burn, it finally did make a deep and possibly even a decisive impact on Scottish opinion on independence.

“Many of the new supporters were drawn from the ranks of those who had voted No in 2014 but Remain in 2016. Brexit became a fait accompli last January and has been followed by very protracted and well-publicised negotiations over a trade deal between the UK and Europe.

“All that gave the break with Europe a fresh salience and reality. As this is written, a disastrous end to ­discussions remained very much on the cards.

“I also sense a general alienation beginning to grow in this moderately left-leaning country that Scotland and England seem to be moving in different political directions over the long term.

“The support of so many former Labour constituencies in the North of England and the Midlands for Johnson’s right-wing Tory party in the last General Election may have helped to crystallise that feeling north of the Border.”

The Scottish Government’s handling of the pandemic has also shifted opinion, he feels. “There is also the perception, widely shared, that the Scottish Government has performed competently and shown more grip than Westminster during the Covid crisis. Whether later investigation will confirm whether or not this view is based on factual reality matters little at the present time,” he adds.

“The polls confirm that most Scots believe that the First Minister and her team have done a good job in exceedingly challenging circumstances. That in turn has helped to boost the pro-independence vote over the last few months, especially since the UK’s feckless Prime Minister and most accomplished recruiter by far for the SNP continues to demonstrate his incompetence.”

Devine thinks the pandemic will mean that 2020 will be remembered as the “year of the expert” with “follow the science” the new slogan of the political classes.

He adds a hopeful note: “If the vaccines work as effectively as suggested, this pandemic will be brought to an end much faster than any in the past, an extraordinary triumph by any standards. As we mourn the dead, confront economic hardships in the future and continue to face constraints on liberty, we should remember that we have got off a great deal more lightly than our ancestors ever did when they were hit by such horrendous crises of death and disease.”