THE “sustained shift” from No to Yes in 16 successive opinion polls is “hugely significant”, according to a leading expert.
Yesterday, poll firm Survation issued its latest snapshot of Scottish voter opinion. It showed a 52% majority for Yes and points to an SNP majority in Holyrood at May’s Holyrood elections, with the Greens recording their best ever performance.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said it’s yet more evidence that independence “is becoming the settled will of the Scottish people”, while Greens co-convener Patrick Harvie suggested the findings back up his party’s pro-independence stance.
Both parties emphasised their determination to press for a second ballot on the country’s future.
Dr Coree Brown Swan, deputy director of the Edinburgh-based Centre on Constitutional Change, told The National the consistent poll findings are “hugely significant” and demonstrate a shift in the public mood since 2014.
And she said that while the pandemic has helped influence that mood, it’s also being viewed through a constitutional lens.
She stated: “It demonstrates a sustained shift.
“At a time of intense uncertainty over the pandemic, over the state of the economy, people are still saying ‘we should go for independence’.
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“What isn’t clear is how much of that shift is because of the current Covid crisis – Nicola Sturgeon has very positive approval ratings, how much of the shift is because of that? Will things return to ‘normal’ as we move out of this crisis?
“The 2021 election will be very much defined by parties’ constitutional position. Brexit and the handling of the pandemic will be viewed by the lens of that constitutional question.”
More than 1000 Scots of voting age were asked how they would vote if a referendum on the constitution was held tomorrow, with the question posed being “should Scotland be an independent country?”
A total of 52% of respondents said they would vote Yes, marking a 2% drop on Survation’s previous poll in November.
It also found the SNP retains its “commanding lead” in voting intention for the next Scottish Parliament and General Elections.
Nicola Sturgeon’s party is on 53% for the Holyrood constituency contest – down 1% from last month – with Labour up 2% and the Tories up 1%, taking both of these parties to 20% each.
The LibDems are polling 6% and just 1% of respondents said they’d back any other party.
In the regional race, the SNP has a “strong lead” of 41% against 20% for Labour and 18% for the Conservatives. Both of those Unionist parties have seen a 1% positive swing since November and the Greens are on 10%, ahead of the LibDems.
And for a General Election, 51% said they’d vote SNP, 21% backed Labour and 20% said they’d vote Tory.
Brown said: “Once again, a poll shows that independence is becoming the settled will of the people of Scotland, now with 16 polls in a row showing majority support.
“The polls also continue to show that people trust the SNP in government to deliver for Scotland.
“An independence referendum will be the choice of the people of Scotland and they will make that decision at the ballot box in May, not Boris Johnson.
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“The SNP will take nothing for granted and continue to work hard to gain the trust of voters ahead of the Scottish election in 2021.
“However, these polls continue to show that the people of Scotland believe our best interests are served as an independent country.”
Harvie commented: “This is just the latest opinion poll which shows the Scottish Greens on course to elect a record number of MSPs in May. It’s clear that our constructive approach to opposition is appreciated by the public, who see our current group of MSPs punching well above their weight. Although encouraging, we’ll continue to work hard for every vote, taking nothing for granted.”
He continued: “It’s clear that the UK simply isn’t working for Scotland. Sixteen polls in a row have now shown sustained majority support for independence.
“Scottish Greens will head into the Scottish General Election in May with a clear commitment to holding an independence referendum, putting Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands.
“And we’ll continue to make the case for a fairer, greener, independent Scotland at the heart of Europe.”
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