DOES Scotland really need a relaxation of Covid restrictions this Christmas or has Nicola Sturgeon made a rare miscalculation of the public’s willingness to knuckle down and behave? Of course, it’s hard to know without access to the data that sits in her hands.

But I’d guess the Scottish Greens are not alone in feeling slightly alarmed at the prospect of households mixing over Christmas and travel starting up all over the UK.

Now, I know, I know, I know. Nicola Sturgeon is not ordering people to visit their relatives over this five-day festive season, and in yesterday’s press briefing, she was at pains to stress that the new relaxed rules represent the outer limits of what’s permitted. Folk are being asked to ask themselves if they really need to travel and meet up indoors with their nearest and dearest.

That looks reasonable enough on paper, but it’s a tough and confusing message to digest.

There’s a grammar to public health announcements, a pattern folk get used to, and in Scotland that’s been a clear set of rules aimed at the vast majority of citizens. This latest advice is different – the new regulations come with the message that most of us shouldn’t be following them at all.

Now, I know, I know, I know.

The First Minister figures that some people simply won’t abide by lockdown rules over Christmas – and if that’s inevitable, the Scottish Government is ready to accept that reality, the better to manage it. But I wonder if Nicola Sturgeon has underestimated the readiness of most Scots to follow her tough rules (see us, see hair shirts) and senses the strange wave of disappointment I’ve registered that her clear-cut rules actually won’t help families to do the right thing over Christmas.

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Of course, those able to withstand the social pressure towards festive reunions will hopefully avoid feeling like miserable Scrooges for deciding family contact must come second when the media, advertising industry and Christian tradition encourage a very different set of priorities.

How much easier for the law-abiding majority if they were (as usual) simply being telt? How much easier to manage the guilt, disappointment and arguments that are bound to occur, when families debate whether travel to grandparents and far-flung relatives is “essential” or not.

Of course, the wisdom of relaxation hinges on how many folk are already intending to bend the rules. My guess is not as many as you’d think.

TV and radio news programmes, racing to the streets to broadcast an expected torrent of gratitude and relief about the temporary restoration of Christmas, have been finding quite the opposite. Punters generally feel nervous about the prospect of a wayward and Covid-costly Christmas – a tribute to the success of Scottish Government guidelines to date.

Folk who sit glued to the wireless or TV at 12:15 every day have got the message. Indeed, National Clinical Director Jason Leitch repeated it yesterday – the best protection against Covid is the front door. So why allow those front doors to open at the most dangerous time of year – when students are back from halls of residence, when colds and other viruses are weakening immune systems, and when kissing and hugging are the order of the day. It’s one thing for people to visit elderly relatives in care homes where the surroundings give constant, visual reminders of their loved one’s vulnerability. It’s quite another to visit an elderly parent in their own home, feeling secure, looking hale and hearty and desperately wanting to be hugged.

As the First Minister has shrewdly observed, none of us ever thinks we can possibly be carrying the virus. So how will families manage to resist physical contact during Christmas visits? Yes, everyone can go for a Christmas walk instead – but if it’s raining? Yes, we can keep windows open during family meals and open Christmas presents, then run straight to wash our hands – but in the heat of the moment, will we?

If it’s not realistic to think fans will watch football in perfect silence – if we don’t leave that up to personal discretion and instead close grounds and severely restrict numbers – then why expect unnatural levels of restraint during oft-postponed festive gatherings?

I THINK we expected Nicola Sturgeon to err on the side of safety – with vaccination just around the corner – and dish out a final dollop of tough love this festive season. Most folk I know were geared up for Zoom calls and uneaten turkey, but now feel they could be socialising and travelling instead.

One limiting factor may be the availability of public transport.

According to The Independent’s travel expert Simon Calder, King’s Cross station will close between Christmas and New Year’s Eve, making trips to and from London very difficult. Most rail companies have no trains on Christmas Day and very few on Boxing Day so travel will be squeezed into three hyper-busy days.

But as yet neither Scotrail nor LNER have published timetables so no advance tickets are available and that means journeys could be full fare and eye-wateringly expensive. This has already prompted a call for Sturgeon to get more trains running over the five-day Christmas period.

She’s pointed out that’s up to Scotrail, but what, in good conscience, should they be doing? Putting on more trains and encouraging more travel – or sticking to their plans and risking difficult scenes on Christmas Eve when folk turn up last minute and push to get on board, because they can see empty (socially distanced) seats?

That’s the big problem with the new advice. If family get-togethers involving travel are the expected norm this Christmas, Scotrail and ferry companies should be encouraged to plan for them. If not, why issue advice suggesting travel is OK?

The other problem is the new distance that exists between Sturgeon and public health experts like professors Linda Bauld and Devi Sridhar. One of the great strengths of the Scottish approach has been the way politicians have clearly listened to free-thinking, independent-minded and respected scientists. Now a wee schism has developed.

On Channel 4, Sridhar said: “We will pay for our Christmas holidays with January/February lockdowns.”

On BBC Scotland’s The Nine, Bauld said: “If we open up again, even for a few days … there will be more cases in January.”

That’s not their usual, unrestrained votes of confidence.

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OF course, the First Minister is in an impossible situation. If she pulled Scotland out of the four-nations approach to Christmas, the hostile headlines would have written themselves. Nanny Xmas, Nicola The Scrooge would be the more printable ones. But would hysterical press criticism stick with a Scottish public that demonstrably prefers to trust the FM’s judgement?

And would any criticism matter, if a hyper-cautious, “miserable” approach is proved justified by a lower level of New Year infection rates? Let’s remember that in Scotland, the festivities aren’t over at Christmas – there’s always Hogmanay. Our most traditional festival isn’t included in the official Covid relaxation period and I’m not suggesting it should be. But once most Scots have had a taste of freedom over Christmas, party instincts might not easily be put back in the box.

To be crystal clear, I wouldn’t be in Nicola Sturgeon’s position for all the tea in China and I readily concede, none of us knows what she knows.

But right now, anyone planning a sober, socially isolated, stay-at-home Christmas is starting to feel like a sucker. And that can’t be the outcome the First Minister intended.