NICOLA Sturgeon has warned Covid-19 cases must go into decline and not just level off as she revealed the R number in Scotland is "hovering around 1".
The First Minister said the reduction in the measure, which estimates the average number of people infected by each person with coronavirus, is "clearly progress on the last couple of weeks".
But she stressed "we have to continue to be careful and cautious" as Scotland approaches its first review of the new five-level approach to coronavirus restrictions on Tuesday.
Speaking ahead of First Minister's Questions, she said: "With some other indicators, that does suggest that the tough measures that have been in place in recent weeks – and the compliance of the public with those measures – is starting to have an effect."
Sturgeon said countries such as France and Spain have had a rise in cases followed by a flattening off, only for this to be followed by another rises in coronavirus infections.
"We have to be cautious of that here," she said.
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"It is not enough for us as we head into winter simply to see a levelling off or a slowing down in the rise of cases – that is what an R number slightly above 1 would deliver."
She added: "What we want to see going into winter to protect the country, to protect the NHS and to save lives, is a reduction in the number of cases."
The First Minister also said Scotland's hospitals are under "intense pressure" but have enough capacity at the moment to cope.
Speaking at FMQs, the Scottish Conservatives' Holyrood leader, Ruth Davidson, asked about a warning that NHS Scotland is facing "an impending winter storm" due to staff shortages and a lack of hospital beds.
Responding to comments by Professor Jackie Taylor, the president of The Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Glasgow, Sturgeon said: "We are not short right now of beds or staff but we do face a very, very challenging winter.
"We are also working hard to ensure that the capacity of our National Health Service is managed in a way that can cope with whatever Covid-19 throws at us over the winter, and also as far as possible continue to treat without cancellation of elective or planned operations"
Sturgeon said both she and Health Secretary Jeane Freeman "look closely" at the available beds in hospitals and intensive care units across Scotland on a daily basis.
She said there is currently sufficient capacity and the NHS Louisa Jordan temporary hospital in Glasgow is available as a contingency.
But she added there is "no room for complacency".
Davidson asked about the Scottish Government's winter preparedness plan announced last week, which states it would "not be appropriate" to use medical students to help deal with staff shortages, as happened during the first lockdown.
Arguing it leaves a "very substantial gap" of approximately 3000 people unable to help in hospitals, Davidson said: "We know from the stark intervention from the heads of the Royal Colleges of their grave reservations of how prepared we really are for the pressures of winter.
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"The winter preparedness plan gives no detail of how it will find or recruit extra staff in the absence of student mobilisation.
"Doctors and nurses are already under pressure and they need reinforcements so can the First Minister give details of where that recruitment will come from?"
The Health Secretary is working on a "winter workforce plan", Sturgeon said, and explained the NHS can still access the General Medical Council's emergency register and recruit from a "pool" of retired and former healthcare workers.
Sturgeon said Scotland has recorded 39 coronavirus deaths and 1216 positive tests have been recorded in the past 24 hours.
This takes the death toll under this measure – of people who first tested positive for the virus within the previous 28 days – to 2966.
The daily test positivity rate is 7.6%, down from 7.9% on Wednesday.
Of the new cases, 481 are in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 236 in Lanarkshire, 128 in Lothian, and 80 in Ayrshire and Arran. The rest are spread across the country.
There are 1252 people in hospital confirmed to have the virus, down five in 24 hours.
Of these patients, 95 are in intensive care, up one.
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