HARD borders, customs checks, queues and confusion – just a small taste of what we can expect in the future relationship between the EU and UK, according to a leading commentator.
The warning comes from Kirsty Hughes, director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations (SCER), which has just relaunched its website with an in-depth analysis of the potential outcomes of Brexit deal negotiations and their possible effects on Scotland, rUK and Europe itself.
READ MORE: Kirsty Hughes: Independence and the EU: where next for Scotland after Brexit?
A deal could be reached by mid-November, says Hughes, although this is far from guaranteed. She says there is much to debate, including borders, the economic impact of Brexit, as well as Scottish independence and, while the EU is standing back from that constitutional argument, it is watching carefully. A No-Deal outcome would mean harder borders and considerable chaos – at a time when the Covid-19 crisis will still be severe,” says Hughes. “Voters are unlikely to thank the Conservative Government for the extraordinary damage this will produce.
“Equally, trading on WTO terms with the EU would also mean a harder border for an independent Scotland with the rest of the UK. But it will be hard for the Conservatives to exploit this in Holyrood election debates if the UK Government spends the first part of 2021 trying to explain why a No-Deal Brexit isn’t as damaging as it looks.
“A chaotic Brexit is more likely to decrease support for the party and the Union than increase it.”
Hughes suggests that a thin trade deal will put barriers up to EU-UK business, which would have a “substantial” negative effect, particularly on services.
READ MORE: A centenary, a Protocol and a potential poll for Northern Ireland in 2021
There is also unlikely that the EU would ease No-Deal chaos with any side deals that would “help the UK Government off a hook of its own creation” – especially as a No-Deal Brexit could create a major crisis over the Irish border.
Hughes goes on to explore how long it would take for an independent Scotland to rejoin the EU and cautions that the currency question would remain – if we do not have our own currency when we apply, we would need a “clear transition path” towards one.
The relaunched website (www.scer.scot) also features a blog by Mark Devenport, former political editor for BBC Northern Ireland, which examines Brexit, Covid and Irish reunification.
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