Covid: Scottish Government evidence for hospitality ban called into question

Earlier this month, on the day bars and restaurants in the central belt were told to close, the chief medical officer, chief nursing officer and national clinical director, published an evidence paper, assessing the current situation in relation to Covid.

There's been some debate over the modelling used, with one figure in that analysis suggesting the worst case scenario - with some restrictions - was 35,000 new infections per day by the end of November.

By way of comparison, the UK Government’s worst case scenario for all four nations was for 50,000 new infections a day.

The Scottish prediction suggests Scotland is on course for an infection rate of 3000 new cases per 100,000 people over 14 days by the end of November.

To put that in some perspective, France currently has a rate of 426 per 100,000 while Spain is on 343 per 100,000.

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That Scottish Government’s prediction was published on October 7, and takes into account the restrictions that were in place on that day; the 10pm curfew for hospitality, the ban on household mixing, and the rule-of-six.

Professor David Paton, an academic at Nottingham University Business School who has taken an interest in statistics used by the UK’s governments in relation to coronavirus, said the modelling put forward by the Scottish Government’s advisers suggested those restrictions were making little difference.

He said: "Scotland already had a very significant number of restrictions in place including some that had only been put in a few weeks earlier. These restrictions are far tighter than in place in many other countries and states around the world.

“Their prediction specifically states 'without further interventions'. Their modelling is based on all the existing restrictions being in place. "They can’t have it both ways. Either the existing restrictions are likely to slow any increase in infections as intended, in which case their modelling looks highly inflated. Or else, perhaps they don’t believe the existing restrictions are effective even in slowing down growth in infections. In which case, you would wonder why those restrictions are in place and why they believe that further restrictions will be effective."

The criticism of the Government’s evidence came as Nicola Sturgeon extended curbs on hospitality, announcing that bars and restaurants in the central belt would remain closed for another week.

The First Minister said it would "not be safe" to ease any restrictions in the short term, but said "we believe they may already be making a difference".

Stephen Montgomery, the spokesperson for the Scottish Hospitality Group, said the industry was sceptical.

He told The National: “We’ve repeatedly asked for scientific data to validate escalating restrictions and we don’t believe any credible evidence exists. On the other hand, a recent survey of our members showed that they had served over 1.8 million customers since reopening after the lockdown and recorded a total of only 17 confirmed cases of Covid. That shows how rigorously we’ve been implementing the rules and how counterproductive it would be to impose further restrictions.

“If we close down bars and restaurants, all the evidence shows that people will just find a way to socialise in their homes. It’s essential we remain open to provide a safe haven. We would urge politicians to visit our premises to see for themselves just how much effort has been put in to make Scotland’s bars, restaurants and hotels safe and secure places for people to come together.”

The chart used in the evidence paper which suggests that we're on course for 35,000 new cases daily would work out as an infection rate of 9000 per 100k people over 14 days.

When we put this to the Scottish Government they told us the estimate "included all infected people not simply positive tests".

However, on page two of the report, the daily estimate for the total number of new infections is around 2900 per day at the same time as we get just over 1000 positive tests a day.

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That would then mean the 35,000 infections a day by the end of November equals 12,000 positive tests, which would still imply a rate of 3000 per 10,0000 over 14 days. Much higher than any recorded by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

When we put this to the Government, they said the figures were not comparable because whenever any country has had cases climbing towards that level they’ve taken action, whether that be guidance or restrictions, and thereby stopped it from reaching those levels."

However, this prediction in the evidence isn't based on no restrictions, it's based on no further restrictions.

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “The modelling in question was a scenario if we kept the restrictions that were in place on the date of the evidence, 7 October.

“At that time, all assessments were that the number of daily infections was growing in Scotland, with [the effective reproduction rate] around 1.5.

“Given the assessment of [the R number] prior to the March lockdown was around 2.5, this demonstrates that the measures in place on 7 October were working, but they were not working well enough to prevent an increase in infections.

“In contrast, [the R number] under full lockdown was assessed to be below 1. Therefore there is some level of intervention between those in place on 7 October and those in place under lockdown that would be sufficient to see a reduction in infections.”