ONE-THIRD of voters are more likely to back independence in a future referendum as a result of the UK Government’s “power grab” Internal Market Bill, according to the super-sized poll commissioned by Progress Scotland.
The impact of the bill on independence voting intentions sees 32% of people more likely to vote Yes and 15% more likely to vote No, while 53% said it will make no difference to them.
Meanwhile, 73% of those surveyed thought Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely.
The latest results to be released from the poll of 2093 people, conducted by Survation, include devastating findings on the impact of both the power grab and Brexit on Scottish public opinion.
They show that 78% of respondents with an opinion believe that the UK Government breaking international law is unacceptable, while only 22% thought it was acceptable if it led to a better trade deal with the EU.
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Excluding don’t-knows, 68% of respondents said they believed the UK Government will not transfer relevant powers from the EU to the Scottish Parliament and will damage the devolution arrangement, while 32% thought that the UK Government will transfer all relevant powers from the EU to the Scottish Parliament and protect the devolution agreement from the Internal Market Bill.
A total of 59% of respondents with an opinion said they thought the Internal Market Bill will lead to a power grab of responsibilities held by the Scottish Parliament, while 41% answered that the bill will lead to “scores of new powers” coming to the Scottish Parliament.
However, the question elicited a high number of don’t know responses, at 43%.
On the European Union and Brexit, a wide number of questions were asked. Excluding respondents who don’t know or neither agree nor disagree, the results were as follows:
- The UK Government is doing a good job of preparing the country for the future, out of the EU:
Agree 24% Disagree 76%
- I am confident that a good trade deal will be negotiated between the UK and the EU by the end of 2020:
Agree 28% Disagree 72%
- Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely:
Agree 73% Disagree 27%
- If the UK leaves the European Union without a Deal, I would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum:
Agree 61% Disagree 39%
- An independent Scotland should be a full member of the European Union:
Agree 67% Disagree 33%
- Leaving the EU will be good for the Scottish economy in the long run:
Agree 40% Disagree 60%
- I am waiting to see what impact Brexit has on me before deciding how I would vote in another independence referendum:
Agree 30% Disagree 70%
Progress Scotland managing director Angus Robertson said: “This poll finds there is overwhelming opposition to the UK Government breaking international law and a wide belief that the Internal Market Bill will not transfer relevant powers from the EU to the Scottish Parliament.
“Brexit continues to have a significant impact on public opinion with nearly three-quarters of people believing the UK Government is not doing a good job preparing the country for the future, out of the EU. Meanwhile 67% of respondents believe an independent Scotland should be a full member of the European Union.
“These findings reflect how much opinion is changing in Scotland and impacting on views towards Scottish independence.
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“The poll has already established that the highest-ever percentage of voters in Scotland now believe that there would be a Yes victory if a referendum was held tomorrow and that one-third of 2014 No voters have changed their minds to Yes or are not sure how they would vote.
Results already released from the poll showed that 64% of respondents with a view believe Scotland would vote Yes if a referendum was held now. The result is the highest-ever rating for the “wisdom of the crowd” question, which tests the expectations of the public about a likely
Yes result. In significant findings on changing voter attitudes, the Survation poll found that almost one-third of 2014 No voters would now vote Yes or are unsure about how they would vote.
Nearly twice as many No voters have moved to Yes than have changed their views in the opposite direction.
The survey was designed by Mark Diffley Consultancy and Research Ltd. The online survey was conducted between September 25 and October 5.
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