SCOTTISH Constitution Secretary Michael Russell has warned Holyrood “cannot avert every negative impact” from Brexit as trade deal talks resume.
Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen spoke via video conference on Saturday and have tasked their chief negotiators with working “intensively” to resolve the remaining differences in the post-Brexit trade talks.
Appearing on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, Johnson said the UK could "prosper mightily” under a No-Deal withdrawal, but said an deal is "there to be done".
Responding, Russell said analysis by the Scottish Government, Rural & Environment Science & Analytical Services, and World Bank estimates point to a “disastrous” impact on Scotland from such a Brexit.
He said: “It is beyond belief that in the middle of a deep recession, Scottish firms still have no idea what their trading arrangements will be with the EU in less than three months’ time.
“A ‘no-deal’ would be disastrous for Scotland.
“But because of the limited ambitions of the UK Government, any agreement that is struck puts Scotland, its people and its economy, in a substantially worse position than where we are now.
“In the event of No-Deal, we could see tariffs on goods, which for some sectors would be crippling. Beef and lamb exports to the EU, worth £76 million in 2018-2019, would be rendered almost unviable with much of exports set to face tariffs in the region of 50% to 70%.
“Other sectors such as refined petroleum, leather goods and textiles would face tariffs ranging from around 5% to 12%.
“Even if the UK secures the kind of limited deal it is seeking, Scottish GDP will be 6.1% lower, that is around £9 billion, by 2030, compared to a Scotland that enjoys continued EU membership.
“If this limited deal is struck, our exporters will face significant new barriers. Products will have to be checked as they enter the EU, jeopardising just-in-time supply chains for exports such as seafood, worth £780m in 2019.
“There will be extra paperwork. It has been estimated by the seafood industry that just the export health certificates for seafood alone will cost between £7m and £15m a year.
“Both a no deal or a ‘low deal’ outcome will force the people of Scotland into a position for which they did not vote — out of the Single Market, out of the Customs Union and with the end of freedom of movement — hitting jobs, lives and living standards hard.”
Russell said Scotland's government “will continue to do everything we can to mitigate against the consequences of the UK Government’s actions”.
However, he went on: “We simply cannot avert every negative outcome.”
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