THE UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October without further restrictions, the UK Government's chief scientific adviser has warned as he announced that small amounts of a vaccine could be available by the end of the year.
Sir Patrick Vallance said the 50,000 number "would be expected to lead to about 200 deaths per day" a month after that.
The briefing at Downing St comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson considers whether to introduce further measures in England.
On Sunday, a further 3,899 daily cases and 18 deaths were reported in the UK.
READ MORE: Boris Johnson 'considering lifting rule of six for 24 hours on Christmas Day'
Speaking alongside the government's chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick said: "At the moment we think the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.
"If, and that's quite a big if, but if that continues unabated and this grows doubling every seven days... if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.
"50,000 cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November say, to 200-plus deaths per day.
"The challenge therefore is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days."
Towards the end of his statement Sir Patrick said small quantities of a vaccine to prevent could be available later this year.
"I am pleased to say good progress is being made. Many vaccines now have shown they generate an immune response of a type that ought to be protective and several vaccines are in very late stages of clinical testing aiming to show they are both effective and safe," he said.
READ MORE: St Andrews University students contract coronavirus after freshers party
Sir Patrick went on to say that the UK through the vaccines taskforce has accessed to a number of the vaccines.
He added: "We don't yet know whether they will work but there is increasing evidence that points in the right direction and it's possible that some vaccine could be available before the end of the year in small amounts for certain groups.
"Much more likely that we'll see things becoming available over the first half of next year…In the meantime we have got to get in control of this," he said.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here