The National:

Throughout the Brexit process, the UK Government’s decisions have damaged people’s interests and wellbeing. The idea of Brexit and the UK’s approach to it only make sense under the populist ideology which has driven the whole project. This ideology seemingly supersedes all reason and good judgment.

Reports that the UK Government is laying the groundwork to break its obligations under the EU-UK withdrawal agreement are deeply troubling. Yet they represent just the latest step in the UK’s abandoning of any semblance of good governance on Brexit.

The Northern Ireland protocol, attached to the withdrawal agreement, is a delicate compromise designed to limit the Brexit damage to the peace process, by maintaining the current all-island economy and preventing new borders on the island of Ireland.

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The protocol was originally intended as an insurance policy, in case the EU and the UK did not agree a sufficiently close future relationship which rendered it unnecessary. Now, given both the distant nature of the UK’s choice of a free trade agreement and the high chances of a No-Deal outcome, the protocol will have to be implemented.

The UK Government is responsible for fulfilling much of the Northern Ireland protocol and informing the EU of how it will do so. The EU has been waiting for these details for months. Given Boris Johnson’s refusal to extend the transition, the time remaining is short.

As reported, the new UK internal market bill will facilitate backtracking on aspects of the protocol. This course would have significant negative ramifications.

Were the Johnson Government to dilute its obligations under the Northern Ireland protocol, it would accelerate the ongoing decline in the UK’s global standing

The impact of Brexit on Ireland, Northern Ireland and the peace process will be profound. The protocol is an attempt to mitigate the worst effects of an outcome which people on the island of Ireland did not want. Yet the UK Government’s cavalier approach to Brexit betrays a lack of either appreciation or interest in these consequences.

Even more, the Johnson administration apparently thinks it acceptable to pressure Ireland on Brexit. Raidió Teilifís Éireann (RTÉ) is reporting today that the UK has been trying to get Ireland to convince the European Commission to be lenient on implementing the Northern Ireland protocol.

Needless to say, this tactic will not work. Ireland will not undermine the EU’s united position on Brexit or its own relationships within the EU to accommodate the UK’s preferences.

The news on the Northern Ireland protocol does not bode well for the future relationship negotiations. Trust between the EU and the UK is already low, given the ramshackle manner in which the UK Government has approached the Brexit process.

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In fact, the EU insisted on a legally-binding insurance policy for Northern Ireland because it had already lost confidence in the UK. The view was that a legal commitment was required to ensure the UK would uphold its responsibilities.

Now, were the UK to break these commitments, the EU’s remaining trust in the UK would evaporate. Significant reluctance would develop to concluding a future relationship deal with the UK, given that it had proven itself to be unreliable.

Nevertheless, the EU will remain pragmatic. Should the UK not follow through on this threat, the EU will still be open to agreeing a new relationship which respects its principles. In any case, given the dire state of the negotiations, the probability of a No-Deal is regrettably high.

The EU has always attached great importance to implementing the withdrawal agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol – regardless of the outcome of the future relationship negotiations. If necessary, it would undoubtedly consider its options, including court action, to enforce the agreement.

The present UK Government will contemplate acting in bad faith where convenient to it. It will not let obstacles – potentially even now including international law – stand in its way

Were the Johnson Government to dilute its obligations under the Northern Ireland protocol, it would accelerate the ongoing decline in the UK’s global standing. Contravening an international treaty is an extremely serious matter.

States and international organisations would question whether the UK might similarly evade its commitments to them in current or future agreements. Loss of confidence in the UK within the international community would make it more challenging to conclude new bilateral trade agreements, in particular.

Driven by Boris Johnson, the Brexit project continues to erode the UK state. The long-term implications for the UK’s place in the world could be substantial. It would hardly be tenable for the UK to continue as a permanent member of the UN Security Council if it began to break international treaties.

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The Scottish public should be concerned by these developments. Beyond their implications for the EU-UK relationship, they demonstrate that the present UK Government will contemplate acting in bad faith where convenient to it. It is powered by Brexit ideology and will not let obstacles – potentially even now including international law – stand in its way.

The UK state’s dysfunction and unreliability will make discussions on an independence referendum or subsequent independence negotiations even more challenging. Scotland will need to be prudent and clever.

Anthony Salamone is a political scientist, analyst and thinker. He is the managing director of European Merchants, an Edinburgh-based political analysis firm.