AS majority momentum towards independence grows in Scotland, there are signs the sands are definitely shifting at Westminster among Unionist politicians and commentators.

Having held the line in the face of growing support for independence with “now is not the time” for a referendum, the reality is gradually dawning that the consequences of blocking a democratic vote would actually be to increase the likelihood of a Yes vote. Soon, the more intelligent among them will realise that the growing number of gerrymandering wheezes will similarly boost independence support. In a twist to the old maxim: “First they ignore you, then they try to stack the cards, then they fight you, then you win”.

This week the former Tory chief whip Andrew Mitchell MP reported on his recent experiences in Scotland. “I think the case for independence in Scotland has clearly grown in the last year. There’s no doubt about that,” he said. “I think Brexit has made the case for the Union more difficult to push in Scotland.

“And we need to make certain that if there is going to be another referendum – and I think it will be very difficult to resist if the SNP get a strong vote next year – then in that case people need to be aware of what the consequences of dissolving the Union would be before they cast a vote.”

This same acknowledgement of realities was reflected by The Spectator’s James Forsyth: “The worry is that Sturgeon will keep asking for a second referendum and each time Westminster says no, support for independence will go up by a point or two. Soon, support for separation will edge up to 60% and it will begin to feel that any referendum would be a confirmatory exercise. As one Tory puts it, ‘It is when you get into the grounds of inevitability that it gets very difficult’.”

Perhaps the Tory in question took a look at the polling which showed that 63% believe that Scotland will vote Yes to independence, regardless of individual preferences.

Forsyth warns that simply blocking democracy in Scotland is not sustainable: “The danger of this approach, though, is that it just stores up problems. When the referendum does come, the nationalists will be in a stronger position and the vote will be on the idea of sovereignty, not the reality of it. If the nationalists triumph, the Union will be over”.

His suggested answer to the conundrum is to stack the pack with punitive independence terms in advance of a referendum. This received immediate support from fellow anti-independence columnist John Rentoul. However, after sleeping on the gerrymandering tactic he realised it would be counterproductive.

In his own pejorative words he said: “On reflection, I don’t think this works: Sturgeon would use negotiations to grievance-peddle just as she would use refusal to allow referendum at all.”

Meanwhile, fellow commentator Paul Mason was even more outspoken: “The new Tory ploy on Scotland – referendum on Tory-dictated separation agreement – can **** right off. The right of nations to self-determination means what it says. Labour must offer no-penalty independence.”

On BBC Newsnight, polling guru Sir John Curtice explained that “If the SNP do go into the Holyrood election saying ‘We want another referendum just like 2014 – that’s what you’re voting for’, and they get an overall majority in that election, then the truth is, the question the UK Government will have to face is, if that isn’t adequate evidence that a referendum should be held then what would be?”

The Strathclyde University professor said such an outcome would be a repetition of the 2011 Holyrood result “which for David Cameron was sufficient evidence that the SNP have the moral right to hold a referendum on independence”.

While the sands have been shifting in Westminster the Scottish Tories have continued to bang on loudly this week about spurious and non-existent reasons why people in Scotland shouldn’t have a renewed say on independence, even if they vote for it to happen.

The more they do this, the more they will be reminded that the Scottish Tories, together with the Labour Party and LibDems, signed up to the Smith Commission (Page 12, paragraph 18) AFTER the 2014 referendum stating: “It is agreed that nothing in this report prevents Scotland becoming an independent country in the future should the people of Scotland so choose.”

People in Scotland will have that choice in the Scottish Parliament election next May. Having already elected the SNP six times since 2014, it will be unsustainable to deny the growing pro-independence majority having its democratic say on the seventh occasion.

Anti-independence politicians thought they had drawn a line in the sand with their assertion that “now is not the time” for another referendum, but as King Canute found out there is no stopping the tide from coming in. Now is the time. It’s time.