AFTER the First Minister announced she will lay out the terms and timing of a second Scottish independence referendum before the end of this parliament, it emerged the majority of Scots believe Yes will win a new vote.
A new poll from Business for Scotland, carried out by Panelbase, found when “don’t knows” were excluded 63% of people believed the country would vote for independence if a referendum is held next year.
The study also showed that 62% of people who voted Labour at the 2019 election believe Yes will win indyref2.
With “don’t knows” included, 29% believed the case for the Union would come out on top while 49% said Nicola Sturgeon’s side would win.
READ MORE: Independence: Nicola Sturgeon to unveil referendum plans
Business for Scotland also asked respondents if they believe Holyrood should be able to hold indyref2 with or without Westminster’s permission if there’s a pro-independence majority next May.
With “don’t knows” excluded 60% believed an independent majority of SNP and Greens offered a democratic mandate for indyref2.
Recent polls have put support for independence between 53-55%.
Business for Scotland’s Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp commented: “We assume that a Yes majority in the 2021 Scottish elections would therefore lead to an autumn 2021 referendum. That 63% think that Scotland would vote for independence is significant, given that is 8% more than the 55% who stated they would support independence in the same poll.
“What makes this poll so interesting for political analysts is that (including don’t knows) only 29% think the Union would prevail in a new independence referendum and only 35% think that an independence majority after Holyrood 2021 did not constitute a democratic mandate to hold such a referendum.
“Looking beneath the headline figures, this poll actually suggests that support for the Union – and faith that the Union will survive such a referendum – has hit rock bottom and is now a minority position.”
The survey was carried out among 1011 Scottish voters aged over 16 between August 12-18.
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