Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, the CEO of Business for Scotland and the leader of the grassroots Yes campaign Believe in Scotland, writes exclusively for The National Extra on the newest Panelbase poll.
Back in June with polls showing 50-51% for Scottish independence, my gut feel was they were too low - I had expected 53 or 54%. Since launching the grassroots Believe in Scotland campaign in January, where I predicted 55% this summer and 60% within a year, we had to pivot our campaign online due to the lockdown.
However, we knew our message was getting through digitally and that grassroots activists were positively talking up Scottish Government's performance versus Westminster. We also felt that the chance to delay the Brexit transition period being missed in June, would mean that more and more No voting Remainers would be coming on board.
If 54% caused panic, just picture the cabinet office today as they try to figure out which Boris photo opportunity will stop the rot
We ran a poll to inform our policy recommendations to the Scottish Government on the economics of independence and also asked the referendum question - it came back with 54% Yes. London-based newspapers reported panic in the cabinet office and a phoney charm offensive with state visits to Scotland was launched, but that charm offensive has backfired. Who would have thought it?
Well if 54% caused panic, just picture the cabinet office today as they try to figure out which Boris photo opportunity will stop the rot.
READ MORE: Scottish independence support put at 54% by SECOND poll today
The Conservatives fired the Scottish leader as further polls confirmed the Yes lead, so the question now is will Labour’s Scottish branch leader Richard Leonard (I checked, that's definitely his name) go now?
These polls have changed the dynamic of the constitutional conversation. Everyone knows the writing is on the wall for the Union, all they have left is an undemocratic threat to say no to a Section 30 Order after an SNP majority in next May’s Holyrood election.
Conservatives however are privately admitting that's unsustainable now and they are even discussing moving into Wendy Alexander’s best “bring it on” mode. But it’s already on; it’s been on since Johnson became PM in December and Brexit happened at the end of January, and there is no way to turn it off.
So how much trouble is the Union in? More than you might think.
As well as 55% Yes, our poll revealed: Males support independence by 56% to 44% and females 53% to 47%.
16-34 year olds, those who will live longest with Scotland as an independent nation, registered a massive 72% Yes to 28% No.
35-54 year olds were also hugely pro-independence, at 59% Yes versus 41% No.
Over 55s, however, were only 38% Yes to 62% No. But the Union’s last protectors are also its Achilles heel.
READ MORE: New Unionist party wants to abolish the Scottish Parliament
The UK’s £134.25 pension is the lowest in the developed world (OECD nations) as a percentage of earnings. If the Scottish Government committed to raising the pension in an independent Scotland to around £330.00 a week, matching the average of OECD/EU countries and ending pensioner poverty, 52% of those over 55s would be likely to vote Yes.
That is already a goal passed by the SNP party conference and should become policy soon, if Nicola Sturgeon is really committed to a wellbeing agenda.
This poll doesn’t just suggest that the tide has turned, it’s a wave of public opinion driven by a renewed belief in Scotland that shows no sign of abating, and in fact, with Brexit about to hit at the end of the 2020 transition period, the union is set to be sunk beneath that wave.
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