RECENT polling on Scottish independence may show a change in the number of Conservative voters now backing self-determination, according to new analysis.

Last week’s Panelbase survey showed support for Scottish independence sitting at 54% - the same figure found in another poll on the matter published days earlier.

These numbers are just two results out of a succession of polls putting support for independence ahead of support for the Union this year.

READ MORE: Support for Scottish independence skyrockets in latest Panelbase poll

Polling experts have pointed to No-voting Remainers changing their stance being key to the rise in support, but according to James Kelly, of the pro-independence Scot Goes Pop blog, there could be another factor at play.

Kelly broke down the percentage of Conservative voters who said they support independence in six polls carried out in 2020. From January to March, he found about 2% of Tory voters who responded to the poll said they would vote Yes.

However, at the beginning of May that figure increased to 4% - before rising to 5% later in June, and 9% at the start of July.

Kelly wrote: “Tory voters are the one group who in recent years have been virtually unanimous in their opposition to independence - you don't get anything like such lopsided numbers among other typically anti-indy groups such as Brexit supporters and people who were born in England. But are things starting to change just slightly?”

Not exactly, the blogger says, due to the small number of respondents – and that 9% figure could be the result of random sampling variation. But, Kelly writes, this is “well worth keeping an eye on for the future”.

Kelly recalled a poll he commissioned last month which asked respondents whether they would feel more or less safe in the UK Government’s lockdown powers were transferred to the Scottish Government. In that survey, Tory voters were split down the middle on the matter.

He adds: “The events of the pandemic may have caused some constitutional soul-searching in some very surprising places.”

The First Minister has an approval rating of +60 for her management of the coronavirus crisis, while the PM’s rating in Scotland is -39.