ANALYSIS of yearly polls on Scottish independence shows a “clear increase” in support, according to James Kelly of the Scot Goes Pop blog.

Kelly commissioned a series of polls on attitudes to independence which The National has reported on over the week. The surveys found support for Scotland rejoining the EU as an independent nation, support for further powers to tackle coronavirus to be awarded to the Scottish Parliament, and indications that the SNP will win another majority at next year’s Holyrood election.

Now, responding to the “false claim” that public opinion on indy hasn’t changed for some time, the blogger has looked at how recent independence polls compare to those from the last few years.

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With the yearly average calculated, in 2018 Yes sat at 45.5%, in 2019 it was at 48.5% and now in 2020 it’s at about 50.4%.

The only polls Kelly excluded were Scotland in Union ones that didn’t actually include independence in the question.

He explains why headlines about Yes being in the lead previously can be found when his own analysis points to a “gradual increase for Yes”.

Kelly writes: “One was just after the 2014 indyref, when the positivity of the campaign was still fresh in people's minds and when David Cameron appeared set to betray The Vow.  The second was just after the EU referendum, but it didn't last long at all. 

“There was then a prolonged slump in 2017 and 2018 when both YouGov and Panelbase were consistently showing Yes hovering somewhere between 43% and 45%.  Self-evidently, the situation has improved markedly since those days.”

The most recent poll on independence, carried out for the blog by Panelbase, found 52% of people support Scotland becoming an independent nation.

It also found 18% of No voters from 2014 would now back a Yes vote.