BUSINESS activity in Scotland’s private sector continued to decline substantially last month as lockdown restrictions continued to disrupt the economy, according to the latest Royal Bank of Scotland Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
The seasonally-adjusted headline Royal Bank of Scotland Business Activity Index – a measure of combined manufacturing and service sector – posted 21.1 in May, rising from April’s nadir of 10.7 but still pointing to a rapid contraction in private-sector activity.
The volume of new work received by private-sector firms in Scotland continued to plummet. Anecdotal evidence linked the fall to temporary business closures and weak client demand amid continued lockdown restrictions as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The pace of contraction was slower than in April, but still the second-fastest since data collection began in January 1998. At sector level, the drop in order book volumes was again sharper in services, although both manufacturers and service providers recorded a softer decline than in April.
Private-sector firms in Scotland signalled renewed optimism with regards to activity over the year ahead in May. The Future Output Index posted above the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time since February, with panellists linking optimism to looser lockdown restrictions and hopes of an economic recovery.
However, sentiment remained among the lowest on record. Across the 12 monitored UK areas, only Northern Ireland registered a weaker outlook than Scotland.
Private-sector firms in Scotland reduced workforce numbers again, extending the current sequence of job cuts to four months.
Panellists reported that weak client demand had led them to reduce staffing levels, although some mentioned the use of government furlough schemes.
The rate of job shedding was the second-quickest on record, despite easing from April. Employment also fell at UK level, with the rate of decline stronger than that seen in Scotland.
A lack of new business meant that Scottish private-sector firms continued to focus more resources on the completion of outstanding work. The rate of backlog depletion slowed only slightly from April’s series record and was the second-quickest seen since data collection began in 1998. May data highlighted a back-to-back reduction in cost burdens facing private-sector firms in Scotland. The rate of deflation was the second-quickest since the series began in January 1998, despite slowing from April. According to panellists, a combination of lower oil prices and falling staff costs drove the decline.
Malcolm Buchanan, chair of the Scotland Board at Royal Bank of Scotland, said: “Latest data highlights further rapid declines in both activity and new business. With demand essentially frozen, companies continued to make substantial reductions to workforce numbers.
“With restrictions easing, sentiment regarding activity over the year ahead returned to a positive footing as businesses look set to re-open and amid hopes of improved demand and an economic recovery.”
However, he added: “Overall, conditions in the Scottish economy remain extremely challenging, with reductions in activity, new business and backlogs all outpacing those seen at the UK level.
“Although data indicates that the downturn has bottomed out, the pandemic has dealt an unprecedented blow to the economy.”
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