PHASE One out of the coronavirus lockdown in Scotland has started and public opinion is becoming stronger about the pandemic crisis and the way ahead. While the Scottish Government is focused on public health considerations, that doesn’t stop the public having thoughts about the Scottish and UK decision-makers, the decisions they have made and what should come next.
This week has been dominated by the Dominic Cummings scandal, where the Prime Minister’s senior adviser broke the rules to travelled the length of England and convinced next to nobody with his bizarre tale of driving to a beauty spot with his family to test his eyesight.
A YouGov poll found 82% of respondents in Scotland believed he did break the lockdown rules. Efforts by Boris Johnson to brazen out the crisis have been unsuccessful, with the issue not going away. Meanwhile, 68% of respondents polled in Scotland thought: “It is still important and people should continue to try and hold him to account over this issue.”
Only 26% felt: “Regardless of whether he should or should not have resigned, it is time to move on from the issue.”
This was the week that the Scottish Tories sacrificed any credibility they had on the altar of craven support for Boris Johnson. After holding out for too long from criticising Dominic Cummings, when they eventually bowed to internal and external pressure
it exposed them to justified charges of lack of leadership and judgment, double standards and absence of a moral compass.
Jackson Carlaw, who was previously outspoken on the issue of Scottish Government advisers, saying, “There cannot be one rule for bosses and another for everyone else,” had to be dragged kicking and screaming to apply the same logic to the UK Government’s senior special adviser.
After a weak first statement saying it was a matter for Boris Johnson, it took pressure from English Tory MPs and then Scottish Tory parliamentarians realising the scale of the problem for him to find his backbone. The Scottish Tories have been exposed as unfit for opposition, let alone government.
Meanwhile, this was another week where the contrast between the UK and Scottish governments was clear. In a poll conducted by Ipsos MORI for BBC Scotland, more than three-quarters (78%) of Scots thought the Scottish Government has handled the crisis well so far, compared with 34% who say the same of the UK Government.
On leadership, 82% felt Nicola Sturgeon has handled the crisis well, with only 30% saying the same of Boris Johnson. More than half of Scots say Boris Johnson and the UK Government have handled the crisis badly, in findings from before the Cummings scandal.
Analysis of the polling came from Emily Gray, the managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, who said: “These findings will come as very positive news for the First Minister and the Scottish Government, with a clear majority of Scots saying they have handled the coronavirus outbreak well.
“The Scottish public overwhelmingly says the Scottish Government’s messages about the coronavirus have been clear. This is in sharp contrast to how they feel about the UK Government’s messages, which two in five Scots say have been unclear. But the communications challenge will arguably become more difficult over the coming weeks and months as lockdown restrictions begin to be lifted.”
In the same poll, we had an insight into Scottish public opinion about the next Scottish independence referendum, where a majority believed a vote should take place at some stage in the next five years. With Scottish Parliament elections scheduled for May 2021, the popularity of the SNP will be key to delivering that referendum. This week’s UK YouGov poll taken on May 25-26 had the SNP on 54% and Tories on 20%. With all the usual caveats on sample size, it was in line with the recent larger survey results. As we emerge from the coronavirus lockdown, a lot of these key trends will also join with the re-emerging Brexit issue.
Pushed out of the public consciousness by Covid-19, it will come back with a vengeance as we approach the end-of-year deadline for an agreement with the European Union.
In this week’s full-sized Scottish poll by Ipsos MORI, two-thirds of the Scottish public (66%) believed the Brexit transition period should be extended for up to two further years to allow more time for trade negotiations. Less than one-third (30%) felt the transition period should end on December 31 as planned. Research for Progress Scotland has already shown that Brexit has been the biggest single issue in moving people towards support for Scottish independence.
More than 1000 subscribers have just given their feedback on the next phase of research, which will be timed as we emerge from lockdown. More details about this will be released shortly. Understanding the developing views of the open-minded and undecided on Scottish independence will be key to the future.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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