SCOTLAND’S schools may not “re-open at all in the near future” the Scottish Government has said.
The stark warning is contained in a new framework document setting out some of the possible options being looked at to allow Scotland to live with the coronavirus.
It also comes just days after reports suggested the UK Government was preparing to send English pupils back to class in June.
The paper makes clear that there will likely be no easing of the lockdown restrictions tomorrow when they’re up for review.
According to the Scottish Government’s own research, an estimated 26,000 Scots currently have coronavirus and are infectious.
The paper also raises the possibility of allowing more outdoor activity and allowing visits to other households. It suggests ministers could relax restrictions to allow construction, manufacturing and elements of outdoor and rural work to restart “when it is safe to do so”.
The Government also said it is considering “resuming certain NHS Scotland elective procedures and screening services, and the phased re-introduction of a wider range of social care support such as therapeutic group activities”.
Speaking at the Scottish Government’s daily briefing, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “What we are seeking to do is find a path to a new normal, one which is less restrictive than the current lockdown, but which doesn’t risk the virus running rampant again.”
On education, the papers says ministers “are considering a phased approach to returning pupils to school” which could mean vulnerable pupils, P7s transitioning to S1 and senior pupils sitting exams could head back first.
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But, the document warns, the government “does not consider it likely that schools will reopen fully in the foreseeable future. Indeed, we are not yet certain that they can re-open at all in the near future”.
According to the Government’s research a full re-opening of schools this month “would cause a resurgence in the virus such that hospital capacity in Scotland would be overwhelmed in less than two months.
An Education Recovery Group established by the government, and made up of local authorities and teachers’ unions, is looking at “a new approach to schooling for the foreseeable future” which could mean most pupils having “a blend of in-school and in-home learning”.
This would include “attending school part-time in blocks of a few days or even a week at a time, to enable deep cleaning of schools between groups. Learning at home will be supported by consistent, high-quality online materials which will be developed to support the curriculum”.
Ministers say their options are “derived from the emerging international evidence” and “from what people and organisations are telling us in Scotland, and from our own analysis of which options might best alleviate harm without compromising our over-riding public-health objective to suppress the virus.”
The document makes clear these options are “under consideration” and that “no specific changes have been decided upon.”
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On outdoor activity, the paper says the current evidence is that this “poses less risk of transmission of the virus than indoor activity” and that ministers “are considering if and how we could make changes to allow people to leave their home more often and/or for longer”.
This would still involve staying in the local area and staying within a household group.
However, the Government is also looking at what changes could be made to allow people to meet with a small number of others outside their own household in a group or “bubble” that acts as a single, self-contained unit.
The number of people allowed in a bubble is still under consideration.
The paper says it is possible that this option would be “introduced first for outdoor meetings, ahead of any change to permit indoor meetings of the bubble”. It warns that if anyone in the group developed symptoms of coronavirus, that person would need to self-isolate immediately for seven days, while the remainder of the bubble isolate for 14 days.
This change would not apply to people currently in the shielded group, who remain at the highest risk from the virus. Ministers have vowed to have an “honest conversation” what that might mean.
On Business, the Government said it “will engage and work with business and trades unions to support the reopening of certain workplaces as soon as possible, but only when it is safe to do so
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