THE strategy outlined by the Scottish Government about how and when restrictions are lifted puts great emphasis on there being no place in its thinking for accepting a certain number of deaths as unavoidable.
This was the so-called herd immunity scientific theory based on the idea that if the virus is allowed to spread, healthy people would become immune and survive and society would carry on as normal – the cost being that hundreds of thousands of other people would die.
The document says “while it is obvious that government cannot guarantee that no-one will become infected with this virus in future”.
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It adds “that there is a proportion or section of the population that it is safe or acceptable to allow to be infected forms no part of the Scottish Government’s policy or approach”.
It continues: “Every individual member of Scottish society matters and our entire strategy is focused on preventing every avoidable death. There is no such thing as a level of “acceptable loss”.
In setting out how then the Scottish Government will find a way of lifting some of the lockdown restrictions while continuing to suppress the virus in the absence of a vaccine it sets out seven guiding principles.
These are listed as follows:
- Safe: “We will ensure that transmission of the virus remains suppressed and that our NHS and care services are not overwhelmed.”
- Lawful: “We will respect the rule of law which will include ensuring that any restrictions are justified, necessary and proportionate.”
- Evidence-based: “We will use the best available evidence and analysis.”
- Fair and Ethical: “We will uphold the principles of human dignity, autonomy, respect and equality.”
- Clear: “We will provide clarity to the public to enable compliance, engagement and accountability.”
- Realistic: “We will consider the viability and effectiveness of options.”]
- Collective: “We will work with our partners and stakeholders, including the UK Government and other devolved nations, ensuring that we meet the specific needs of Scotland.”
Explaining some of the science which will guide her decisions when she spoke at yesterday’s media briefing, the First Minister said the reproduction rate – or R figure – of the virus must be kept below one. Best estimates currently put it “somewhere between 0.6 and one”.
But, she added the “science will never be exact” and the Scottish Government will have to make its own judgments and its own decisions on any measures to be added or lifted.
The fluctuating R figure explains why there is likely to be a need for a series of multiple future lockdowns even after the current restrictions are lifted.
The report states: “If, after easing any restrictions, the evidence tells us we are unable to contain the transmission of the virus then we will have to re-impose them, possibly returning to lockdown with little notice.
“While we will do our best to avoid this, it is possible that such a cycle may happen more than once until we reach a point when we have in place an effective vaccine.”
With an eye on the R figure, the report explains the need for a phased lifting of restrictions.
“Over the next few weeks, based on the evidence and expert advice, a number of options will be considered – not all of which may be selected,” it states.
“These are likely to include the easing of restrictions in a phased manner, opening up different parts of the economy sector by sector, considering different restrictions in different areas dependent on how the pandemic is progressing and considering options for different groups of the population – as is currently the case with those shielded for clinical reasons.
“It may be that restrictions on some outdoor activity are eased before those on indoor activities – however, all of this will be evidence-led.”
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