SCOTLAND’S coronavirus lockdown could lead to GDP shrinking by as much as 25%, the Fraser of Allander Institute has warned.
In a new article, the economists at Strathclyde University said construction and services – two of the biggest sectors in Scotland’s economy – faced difficult times ahead.
“The scale of this shut down and therefore the impact are completely unprecedented,” they wrote.
They added: “Now of course, many of these effects will be temporary. Once restrictions are gradually lifted, then we should see some of these sectors bouncing back. To what extent, we don’t yet know.”
If current restrictions continue for a three-month period, they said, Scottish GDP could contract by around 20-25%.
Construction’s contraction could be as much as 40-50%.
Services – which includes retail, public sector, and transport – could be down by 15-20%.
READ MORE: Scotland’s economy ‘could take years to recover from coronavirus’
Scottish Tory shadow finance secretary Donald Cameron said: “A contraction of this magnitude would be brutal for jobs, growth and prosperity.
“Everyone understands the public health need for lockdown at the moment. But this warning makes it all the more essential that the Scottish Government gets its economic support package absolutely right.”
The news of the economic impact came as the Scottish Government recorded a further 74 deaths because of coronavirus.
That takes the total death toll for Scotland up to 296.
Most of the deaths recorded yesterday actually happened over the weekend, which is why the numbers released on Sunday and Monday were so low, and the figures published yesterday were so high.
The delay in the sharing of the data was because the National Records of Scotland is only now moving to recording deaths seven days a week.
However, it’s likely there will be a substantial spike in the total death toll today.
Until now, Health Protection Scotland count only the fatalities where a person has tested positive for the virus.
Today, the National Records of Scotland will share details of patients who had not been tested for the bug, but where doctors believe it contributed to their death.
In total, 4,229 people have tested positive across the country and the number of patients being treated in hospital for Covid-19 symptoms is 1,751, increases of 268 and 152 people respectively.
Of those patients in hospital, 199 are being treated in intensive care, the same figure as reported on Monday.
In her daily briefing Nicola Sturgeon paid tribute to care workers following reports of a spate of deaths in care homes across Scotland, including eight deaths at Castle View Care Home in Dumbarton.
Sturgeon said: “The Care Inspectorate will continue to provide advice and support to that home and to others.
“The Scottish Government is working with the inspectorate to understand the broader impact of Covid-19 on the care sector so that we can support health and care workers as much as possible.”
However, unions have hit out at the recent instructions from Scotland’s chief nursing officer Fiona McQueen which says staff don’t need to wear face masks if dealing with patients showing no signs of having Covid-19.
McQueen has said her guidance – which differs from the guidance in England and Wales – was based on science.
The STUC’s Rozanne Foyer said: “Tragically, care home residents and care workers are falling ill and dying. The longer these mixed messages are in the public domain the more avoidable death and illness will increase.”
Scotland is in lockdown. Shops are closing and newspaper sales are falling fast. It’s no exaggeration to say that the future of The National is at stake. Please consider supporting us through this with a digital subscription from just £2 for 2 months by following this link: www.thenational.scot/subscribe. Thanks – and stay safe.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel