Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh: Why indyref2 fight won't be won in London

The axis of self-interest between Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings could soon implode if rumours about the chaos at numbers 10 and 11 are anything to go by. Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service, Mark Sedwill, has been called in to put the conduct of certain individuals under the microscope with polite yet pointed reminders of what is and what is not expected of ministerial behaviour.

And here’s another superforecast for you. It doesn’t change anything for Scotland.

What if the incredible happens and Johnson doesn’t survive the storms of his self-made Brexit disaster, if Cummings’s super-ego spontaneously combusts and he flounces out of Downing Street to write his memoirs in a series of blogs, or if the security risky Home Secretary, Priti Patel, is deemed a step too far for the safety of the UK and is packed off to be a peace envoy in the Middle East? If all this happens and other Conservatives step in to crew the not-so-steady Good Ship Britannia, still nothing would be any different for Scotland.

Whether it’s “now is not the time” Theresa May style or a flat out “no” from Boris Johnson, the next head of the UK Government will not be inclined to grant the Scots our three wishes; a second referendum, independence, and a return to Europe. Because no Tory PM wants to remembered as over-seeing the break-up of this increasingly disunited kingdom, and the stronger the support for independence becomes then the less inclined they will be to risk the three wishes.

Westminster is becoming an irrelevance in terms of progress for our nation. Despite strong voices for Scotland fighting for recognition, it ain’t worth a hill o’ beans against Johnson’s great thumping majority, whether he can manage to keep his crown or not. Just watch Parliament TV for five mins and you’ll see what I mean. It’s a jungle in there for the Scots.

So, #Change Must Come indeed.

But how will this change manifest itself?

There’s been lots of rumblings from independence supporters highlighting how abstentionism has worked for Sinn Fein, whose rejection of Westminster as having any right of governance over Ireland and their refusal to participate as elected officials in the House of Commons has been in place for over a century now.

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As far as Sinn Fein are concerned, Westminster does not act in the best interests of Ireland, in fact, it has actively worked against any of the best interests of Ireland. Forcing Northern Ireland to Brexit against its voters’ democratic wishes to remain part of Europe and despite the utter carnage it threatens to their economy is just the most blatant recent example. Even the Democratic Unionist Party openly recognises that backstabbing Ireland is second nature to Westminster politicians.

Julian Smith: sacked after helping to end the impasse at Stormont

The recent sacking of the Northern Irish Secretary, Julian Smith, was another indication of how little this UK Government cares for the concerns of the Northern Irish people. Smith was largely responsible for bringing the politicians back to Stormont to start anew and was regarded highly on all sides of the political divide as a robust but well-tuned in British politician. This is a rare accolade indeed in Northern Ireland. Listening to and reading some of the drivel in the British media about Ireland it’s easy to see why Sinn Fein believe that Ireland’s best interests are served at home. Watching Johnson and his Brexit negotiating “crack-team” make a dog’s dinner of the previously agreed Irish Protocol is another obvious example of disregard and lack of care.

Ireland’s cause wasn’t always progressed by the abstentionism of Sinn Fein. At the height of Charles Stewart Parnell’s powers he held Westminster in the palm of his hand through his control of the Irish Parliamentary Party. But times changed and Sinn Fein swept the 1918 election and instead of decamping to Westminster set up the Dáil Éireann.

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Now, 21st century Scotland is not 20th century Ireland. The SNP is not about to become an abstentionist party nor need it. However there has to be a recognition that the relative political weight placed on Westminster and Scotland has to change. SNP MPs will recognise that popping up on the campaign trail in Scotland will add more to the Scottish cause than bobbing up and down on the green benches.

If that crystallises into a Scottish Convention anchored on the elected parliamentary representatives of Scotland then so much the better.

My former colleague, SNP MP Joanna Cherry QC is therefore right when she said this week, “Scotland will (continue to) be ignored at Westminster; the movement for Scotland to be an independent European nation can only be realised from Holyrood”. Amen to that.

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The fight for sovereignty will not be won from SW1. We need to shift our gaze, re-group, re-frame the argument outside of and beyond Westminster. We have the right to determine our future. We have the right to make democratic choices that are neither ignored or shrugged off by a bigger partner because in Scotland, size matters. We may be small, but we’ve got big ambitions and none of them involve an archaic political system that we’ve outgrown and fails spectacularly to represent our best interests.

Change must come and it needs to come at home. It's either that or we’re trapped in an unequal partnership characterised by negativity and indifference. I think the people know that the real fight is for Scotland and that it is best conducted with home advantage.