Top-rate taxpayers in Scotland will pay at least £1500 a year more compared to the rest of the UK, while those earning below £27k will be £21 better off, according to a budget report by the Scottish Parliament.
The research found the extra money raised will "almost entirely offset" block grant deductions.
Although a majority of taxpayers (56%) will pay less in Scotland, higher rate taxpayers earning more than £50,000 will pay a minimum of £1500 extra in income tax, the Scottish Parliament Information Centre (Spice) said.
Those earning below £27,000 will pay approximately £21 less per year on average, Spice has calculated.
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Analysis of last week's draft Budget by Spice found the Scottish Government is forecast to raise £650 million more than if Scotland matched the rest of the UK's income tax rates.
But the additional revenue "is only just managing to offset the block grant adjustment" – the money deducted due to the Scottish Government receiving more funding than it should have done because of previous forecasting errors.
Following the budget, Scottish Fiscal Commission chief executive John Ireland said the Scottish Government should start planning for "a half a billion-pound hit" to the 2021-22 budget from the income tax reconciliations.
In its report into Thursday's draft budget, Spice said: "The Scottish Government's decision not to replicate (the rest of the UK's) tax policy also means that tax receipts are forecast to be around £650 million higher than would otherwise be the case, before accounting for any behavioural responses.
"However, these higher tax revenues are forecast to be almost entirely offset by the deduction to the Scottish budget via the block grant adjustment (BGA).
"SFC forecasts estimate that this £650 million differential will only generate £46 million more than is deducted by the BGA.
"So, rather than generating an additional £650 million for the Scottish budget, the different income tax policy is only just managing to offset the BGA."
On the often-contentious issue of local government funding, Spice said this year's proposed settlement is "more generous" – a real-terms increase of £159 million (1.6%) – although the funding for the non-ring-fenced, discretionary areas of spending "is essentially flat in real terms".
Spice also said future funding for public transport infrastructure such as new rail routes, bus services, electric vehicles "remain dwarfed by the commitment to invest £6 billion over the next 10 years in dualling the A9 and A96 trunk roads" plus others.
Responding to the findings of transport investment, Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie said: "Away from the SNP spin, these figures show this budget for what it is – an inadequate response to the climate emergency.
"This report shows that in high-intensity sectors like transport, the Scottish Government are using the right rhetoric on climate but pursuing a business-as-usual approach."
He added: "We don't have time to pretend to take this seriously.
"The Scottish Government could start by following the recommendations of its own Infrastructure Commission, which said that no additional capacity should be added to the road network and that we should invest to boost public transport instead.
"The Greens are willing to work with the Government to introduce free bus travel for our young people and provide warm homes but ministers will need to wake up to the climate emergency to do that."
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